je.st
news
Tag: julia
Tropical Storm JULIA Graphics
2016-09-16 17:15:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2016 14:40:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2016 15:08:08 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
julia
Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-09-16 16:41:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 161440 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Julia continues to feel the impact of 25 to 35 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, as the main deep convection remains about 40 to 60 n mi east of the low-level center. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are near 35 kt, and that remains the initial intensity. It is noted that buoy 41002 located about 55 n mi northeast of the center is reporting winds of less than 30 kt, so it is possible that initial intensity is a little generous. There is decreasing confidence in the intensity forecast. While Julia is expected to stay in a strong shear environment for the next 60 hours or so, the dynamical models suggest that the upper-level winds over the cyclone may be less than forecast yesterday. After 60 hours, all guidance suggests that the shear should decrease, and at that time the Canadian and UKMET models show re-intensification. On the other hand, the GFS and ECMWF forecast Julia to continue to weaken even in the more favorable upper-level winds. The new intensity forecast stays with the scenario of the previous forecast in calling for the shear to cause the cyclone's demise. However, this forecast is on the low edge of the intensity guidance, and the chances that Julia will survive and re-intensify are higher than they were 24 hours ago. Julia continues to move erratically east-southeastward with an initial motion of 105/6. The cyclone is expected to meander for the next 2 days or so in weak steering flow. In 3-4 days, a mid- to upper-level trough moving into the northeastern United States should steer the cyclone or its remnants northeastward. There remains a considerable amount of uncertainty in the track forecast due somewhat to the uncertainties in the intensity. A weaker Julia should be slower to move northeastward as shown by the GFS and ECMWF, while a stronger Julia will move somewhat more quickly toward the northeast as shown by the Canadian. Overall, the new forecast track goes with the slower scenario and and is an update of the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 31.1N 75.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 30.9N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 30.8N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 30.9N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 31.2N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 32.5N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z 33.0N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2016-09-16 16:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 161440 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm JULIA (AT1/AL112016)
2016-09-16 16:39:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JULIA MEANDERING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST... As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 16 the center of JULIA was located near 31.1, -75.6 with movement ESE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
julia
Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast Advisory Number 11
2016-09-16 16:39:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 161439 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 75.6W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 75.6W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 75.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.9N 75.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.8N 75.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.9N 75.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.2N 76.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 32.5N 76.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 33.0N 74.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 75.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] next »