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Tropical Depression JULIA Public Advisory Number 14
2016-09-17 10:32:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170832 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 ...WEAKENING JULIA LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 76.4W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Julia was located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 76.4 West. The depression is currently stationary. A slow northwestward motion is expected to begin later today, followed by a slow northward motion on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Julia is expected to become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression JULIA Graphics
2016-09-17 05:10:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2016 02:50:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2016 03:06:34 GMT
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Tropical Depression JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-09-17 04:49:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170249 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Deja vu all over again. Julia lost all its deep convection tonight and now consists of a very tight swirl of low clouds. Assuming that the cyclone is spinning down, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt. I would not be surprised if another round of convection develops near the center despite the strong westerly shear, but the cyclone will likely become decapitated again by strong upper-level westerlies. Given that the strong shear will likely persist for the next 2 days or so, weakening is indicated in the NHC forecast. By the time the shear is expected to decrease, it is probably too late for the cyclone to recover, and in a couple of days, if not sooner, Julia is expected to be a remnant low. There has been no significant motion during the past day or so, and basically the cyclone has been meandering while it is trapped in very light steering currents. This pattern is not expected to change, and Julia or its remnants will likely continue milling around for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 30.2N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 30.2N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 30.5N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 31.0N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 31.5N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z 32.5N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2016-09-17 04:49:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 170249 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 0300 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression JULIA (AT1/AL112016)
2016-09-17 04:48:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JULIA IS GOING NOWHERE FOR NOW AND PROBABLY WILL WEAKEN IN SITU... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 the center of JULIA was located near 30.2, -76.3 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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