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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone JULIA (AT1/AL112016)
2016-09-19 04:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JULIA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 the center of JULIA was located near 32.2, -78.4 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone JULIA Public Advisory Number 21
2016-09-19 04:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 190239 TCPAT1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 ...JULIA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 78.4W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Julia was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 78.4 West. The low is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast to occur overnight, and that motion is expected to continue into Tuesday. The system is expected to be near the coast of southeastern North Carolina Monday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The interaction of the remnants of Julia with a weak cold front pushing slowly eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches across eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic region northward into eastern New York and southern New England through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches will be possible, especially over portions of eastern North Carolina northward into parts of eastern Virginia, eastern Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. These amounts could result in localized flooding or flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Julia. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone JULIA Forecast Advisory Number 21
2016-09-19 04:39:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 190239 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 0300 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 78.4W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 78.4W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 78.3W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 33.2N 78.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 34.4N 77.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.9N 77.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 35.1N 77.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 78.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression JULIA Graphics
2016-09-18 23:10:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Sep 2016 20:33:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Sep 2016 21:06:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 20
2016-09-18 22:32:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 182032 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 Julia's low-level circulation has continued to improve despite the lack of organized deep convection near the well-defined center. However, some tight curved banding features consisting of shallow to moderate convection have developed within 100 nmi of the center during the past few hours, a hint that the mid-level moisture is beginning to increase. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on on a TAFB intensity estimate of T1.5/25 kt, and a 1535Z ASCAT pass that showed some surface winds near 25 kt just north of the center. Julia is moving northwestward or 330/06 kt. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and gradually turn toward the north-northwest and north later tonight. A northward motion is then expected to persist, ahead of a strong shortwave trough that is forecast to move toward the western Carolinas, until Julia moves near or just onshore the the southeastern coast of North Carolina on Tuesday. After that time, it is uncertain whether or not a weakening Julia will lift out to the northeast and merge with a frontal boundary, or drift southwestward as a remnant low. Regardless of the status of Julia by 72 hours, the models are in good agreement that the system will not be a tropical cyclone at that time or thereafter due to strong vertical wind shear and land interaction. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, which is a compromise of the various global and regional model solutions. Julia has a narrow window of opportunity to strengthen tonight and Monday morning when the vertical wind shear is forecast to weaken significantly and the upper-level flow is expected to become more anticyclonic. These more conducive dynamics are forecast to coincide with the nighttime convective maximum period and also during the time when Julia will be over the Gulf Stream where SSTs are 29-30C. Buoy reports offshore the South Carolina coast indicate that surface dew points have increased to near 80F, a further indication that the atmosphere surrounding Julia is becoming more conducive for regeneration of convection near the center later tonight. By Monday afternoon and evening, increasing southwesterly shear ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough should induce steady weakening, which is expected to continue as the cyclone approaches the coast of North Carolina. The intensity forecast remains unchanged is a little below the consensus model IVCN. However, due to the possibility that Julia could be a little stronger than currently expected, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has tentatively been tasked to investigate the cyclone Monday afternoon. The primary threat from Julia will be locally heavy rainfall from eastern North Carolina northward to the Mid-Atlantic states and the northeastern U.S. when moisture from the cyclone, or its remnants, will interact with an approaching frontal system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 32.3N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 33.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 34.0N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 34.6N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/1800Z 34.9N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 21/1800Z 34.2N 78.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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