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Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN Graphics
2016-06-07 23:08:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Jun 2016 20:20:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Jun 2016 21:04:37 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-06-07 22:20:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 072020 TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 500 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 Colin is now being analyzed as a fully extratropical cyclone with frontal features. The gusty winds and rainfall has cleared the coast of North Carolina; therefore this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The low's intensity remains 50 kt, which is in agreement with an earlier ASCAT pass that showed a large area of 40-45 kt winds well to the southeast of the center. The extratropical cyclone will likely deepen tonight due to baroclinic energetics, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday while the low moves over the North Atlantic. The forecast intensities and wind radii are based on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center. The cyclone is racing northeastward at about 35 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. After that time, the low should decelerate as it moves moves around a couple of larger extratropical lows over the North Atlantic. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Colin. Future information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 36.5N 72.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 08/0600Z 39.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 08/1800Z 43.5N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0600Z 46.5N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1800Z 48.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z 53.0N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1800Z...Absorbed $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN (AT3/AL032016)
2016-06-07 22:19:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POST-TROPICAL COLIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 the center of COLIN was located near 36.5, -72.2 with movement NE at 40 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN Public Advisory Number 10
2016-06-07 22:19:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 072019 TCPAT3 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 500 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 ...POST-TROPICAL COLIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.5N 72.2W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Colin was located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 72.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight, but gradual weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) primarily to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2016-06-07 22:19:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 072019 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 2100 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 19(19) 8(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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