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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN (AT3/AL032016)
2016-06-07 17:09:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...COLIN BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...GUSTY WINDS AND RAINS OVER THE OUTER BANKS SHOULD BE ENDING SOON... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Jun 7 the center of COLIN was located near 34.0, -77.0 with movement NE at 36 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN Public Advisory Number 9
2016-06-07 17:09:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071509 TCPAT3 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 9...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 CORRRECTED SPELLING OF CAPE LOOKOUT IN THE WARNING SECTION ...COLIN BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...GUSTY WINDS AND RAINS OVER THE OUTER BANKS SHOULD BE ENDING SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 77.0W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued along the North Carolina coast south of Cape Lookout. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet North Carolina This warning will likely be discontinued early this afternoon. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Colin was estimated near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 77.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 36 mph (57 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed this afernoon and tonight. The center of Colin will move near and parallel to the Outer Banks of North Carolina during the next couple of hours, then offshore well east of the mid-Atlantic coast later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts, although the system's strongest winds and heaviest rains are located over water well southeast of the center. Some slight strengthening is possible today and tonight, but gradual weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) primarily to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Colin is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches across far eastern North Carolina and 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches, across central Florida through this evening. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the west coast of the Florida peninsula, but are expected to subside by this evening. Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along the Outer Banks of North Carolina within the tropical storm warning area. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur over portions of the warning area through early afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2016-06-07 16:59:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 071459 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1500 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 12(12) 13(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 29 X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CHERRY PT NC 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 26 X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MOREHEAD CITY 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SURF CITY NC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-06-07 16:59:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 071459 TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 Satellite and surface observations indicate that Colin has become post-tropical. A pressure minimum has recently passed near NOAA buoy 41013, but the circulation has become so elongated and ill defined that the system can no longer be considered a tropical cyclone. However, strong winds are still occurring along the North Carolina Outer Banks, so advisories will continue on a post-tropical cyclone until these winds subside. The minimum pressure has fallen a few millibars and recent buoy observations have recorded tropical-storm-force winds near the western portion of the deep convection. Assuming stronger winds are occurring within the deep convection and given the fast translational speed of the system, the initial wind speed is increased to 50 kt. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will deepen due to baroclinic processes during the next day or so, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for some additional strengthening. After that time, the low is expected to gradually weaken over the North Atlantic. The forecast intensities and wind radii of the extratropical low are based on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center. The post-tropical cyclone is moving northeastward at about 31 kt. This general motion with some additional increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone should slow as it moves around and is eventually absorbed by a larger low over the North Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 34.0N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/0000Z 36.9N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/1200Z 41.0N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0000Z 45.0N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1200Z 48.0N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z 51.5N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1200Z 53.5N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1200Z...Absorbed $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN Forecast Advisory Number 9
2016-06-07 16:58:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 071458 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1500 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPLE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 77.0W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 31 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 77.0W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 78.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 36.9N 70.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 200SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 41.0N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 270SE 180SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 45.0N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 300SE 240SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 48.0N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 360SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 51.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 300SE 180SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 53.5N 36.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 77.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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