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Tropical Storm COLIN Public Advisory Number 6A
2016-06-07 01:46:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 062345 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 700 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 ...COLIN NEARING THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 84.7W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Englewood * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Oregon Inlet North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 84.7 West. Colin is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight and Tuesday. On this track, the center of Colin is forecast to move onshore of the Florida Big Bend area in a few hours, then move across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia through early Tuesday morning, and move near or over the southeastern coast of the United States Tuesday. However, it's important to note that the strongest winds and heaviest rains are well removed from the center. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) to the southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow station at Clearwater Beach Pier recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas through Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts possible in a few locations. Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft. Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along the Atlantic coast from Florida to North Carolina within the tropical storm warning area. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Brief squalls with winds to near tropical storm force will be moving through portions of South Florida through this evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the warning area along the west coast of the Florida peninsula through the evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning area along the Atlantic coast by overnight tonight. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight across portions of Florida and far southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm COLIN Graphics
2016-06-06 23:08:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Jun 2016 20:49:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Jun 2016 21:04:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-06-06 22:49:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062048 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 Colin does not look much like a tropical cyclone in satellite imagery this afternoon. The center remains well removed from the showers and thunderstorms, and the reconnaissance aircraft data has found the strongest winds about 200 n mi southeast of the center. The highest flight level winds measured by the aircraft have been 63 kt with SFMR surface winds of 40 kt. Since the plane did not fully sample the convective band, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt. The global models continue to significantly deepen the cyclone during the next 24 to 48 hours, which is likely due to the interaction of the system with a mid- to upper-level trough that is currently moving southeastward over the Midwest. The intensity forecast calls for an increase in wind speed during the next 24 to 36 hours, then gradual weakening as an extratropical cyclone after day 2. Colin's initial motion is north-northeastward, or 030/20 kt. The cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward as it moves along the coast of the southeastern United States later tonight and Tuesday. A continued rapid northeastward motion is expected as the cyclone moves over the North Atlantic within strong southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. The track guidance has changed little during first 24 to 36 h, but has shifted northwestward after that time. The NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly, and is closest to the 12z ECMWF. Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy rainfall from the center of Colin, it is important to not focus on the exact forecast track, or on the time or location of landfall. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding are already affecting much of Florida and portions of the southeast United States. It should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast. In this case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on the post-tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 28.8N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 31.7N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/1800Z 35.2N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/0600Z 39.4N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 08/1800Z 43.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1800Z 48.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1800Z 53.0N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z 56.5N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm COLIN (AT3/AL032016)
2016-06-06 22:48:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINS FROM COLIN SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA... SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 the center of COLIN was located near 28.8, -85.5 with movement NNE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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colin
Tropical Storm COLIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2016-06-06 22:48:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 06 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 062048 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 2100 UTC MON JUN 06 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) X(38) X(38) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) X(26) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 45(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 33(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) CHERRY PT NC 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 49(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NEW RIVER NC 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 45(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SURF CITY NC 34 X 38(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) SURF CITY NC 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 35(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 50(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 35(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 36(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 39(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 3 37(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 8 30(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 22 21(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) SAVANNAH GA 50 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGS BAY GA 34 84 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) KINGS BAY GA 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 41 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) WAYCROSS GA 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 79 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) MAYPORT NS FL 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) JACKSONVILLE 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) DAYTONA BEACH 34 43 X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) THE VILLAGES 34 56 X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) ORLANDO FL 34 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) COCOA BEACH FL 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PATRICK AFB 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) FT PIERCE FL 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) TAMPA FL 34 47 X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) CEDAR KEY FL 34 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) APALACHICOLA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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