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Tropical Storm COLIN Graphics

2016-06-07 07:42:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Jun 2016 05:42:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Jun 2016 03:04:38 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm COLIN (AT3/AL032016)

2016-06-07 07:38:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF COLIN NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA... As of 2:00 AM EDT Tue Jun 7 the center of COLIN was located near 30.2, -82.6 with movement NE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm COLIN Public Advisory Number 7A

2016-06-07 07:38:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070538 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 200 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 ...CENTER OF COLIN NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 82.6W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued along the Florida Gulf coast from Indian Pass to the Suwannee River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Gulf coast from Suwannee River to Englewood * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Oregon Inlet North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 82.6 West. Colin is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A continued northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Colin will move across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia for the next few hours, and then move near or over the southeastern coast of the United States later today. However, it's important to note that the strongest winds and heaviest rains are well removed from the center. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring mainly over the Atlantic waters well to the east of the center. Some strengthening is forecast after Colin moves into the Atlantic later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches across western to northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas through Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts possible in a few locations. Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft. Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along the Atlantic coast from Florida to North Carolina within the tropical storm warning area. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the warning area along the west coast of the Florida peninsula for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over portions of the warning area along the Atlantic coast of Florida, and these conditions will spread northward and northeastward over the remainder of the warning area through the remainder of today. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will remain possible across parts of central and northeast Florida early tonight, and perhaps near coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas overnight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 7

2016-06-07 04:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070237 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016 Surface observations and shortwave infrared imagery suggest that the center of Colin is just offshore of the coastline in the Big Bend region of Florida, and the system should make landfall very soon. Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy rainfall from the center of Colin, however, it is important to not focus on the time or location of landfall, or on the exact forecast track. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding have been affecting much of Florida and these conditions should spread northward and northeastward over the southeast United States. The intensity estimate remains at 45 kt, under the assumption that wind speeds near this value are still being experienced at some locations along the coast. Global models indicate that Colin will deepen when it moves over the Atlantic, probably due to baroclinic energetics. Although Colin is expected to lose tropical characteristics within 24 hours, the models do not show it fully embedded within a frontal zone, i.e. extratropical, until about 48 hours. The official forecast goes with this scenario. The initial motion estimate is 050/19. Colin should accelerate northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern United States for the next day or two. After that, the forward speed of the cyclone is likely to slow as it interacts with a couple of other extratropical lows over the north Atlantic. It should be noted that Colin will probably lose its status as a tropical cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast. In this case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on the post-tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 29.8N 83.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 32.9N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 36.5N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/1200Z 41.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 09/0000Z 45.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0000Z 49.0N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0000Z 54.0N 31.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z 56.0N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Summary for Tropical Storm COLIN (AT3/AL032016)

2016-06-07 04:37:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...COLIN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 the center of COLIN was located near 29.8, -83.8 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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