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Tropical Storm COLIN Graphics
2016-06-06 17:06:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Jun 2016 14:57:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Jun 2016 15:03:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-06-06 16:57:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 061456 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 The satellite presentation of Colin does not resemble that of a classical tropical cyclone, with the thunderstorm activity and strong winds well to the east of the center. Satellite, buoy, and the earlier aircraft data indicate that the center, such as it is, is within a large area of light and variable winds. In fact, several small swirls are seen rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre. The initial wind speed is maintained at 45 kt, based on the overnight aircraft observations. The next reconnaissance aircraft will be in the system around 18z. The strong southwesterly shear and very poor organization of the system suggest that significant strengthening is not likely before Colin reaches the coast of Florida later today. The global models unanimously show some deepening when the cyclone moves near the coast of the southeastern United States, likely due to interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern United States. Colin is forecast to complete extratropical transition in about 48 hours. The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 010/14 kt. Colin is expected to accelerate northeastward later today. On Tuesday, Colin is expected to move northeastward at an even faster forward speed as it becomes embedded in strong southwesterly flow ahead of a large deep-layer trough over the northeastern United States. The NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly northward from the previous advisory to be closer to the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy rainfall from the center of Colin, it is important to not focus on the exact forecast track, or on the time or location of landfall. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding will begin affecting portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon well in advance of the center's nearing the coast. It should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast. In this case, NHC would anticipate continuing advisories and warnings on the post-tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 27.0N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 32.8N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 36.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 40.2N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1200Z 45.5N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1200Z 50.0N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z 55.0N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm COLIN (AT3/AL032016)
2016-06-06 16:56:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 6 the center of COLIN was located near 27.0, -87.0 with movement NNE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm COLIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-06-06 16:56:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 06 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 061456 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1500 UTC MON JUN 06 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 34(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 29(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 7( 7) 12(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 12(12) 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 19(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 20(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 24(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 63(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) KINGS BAY GA 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 1 30(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) WAYCROSS GA 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 61(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 2 64(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 14 49(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 6 24(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) THE VILLAGES 34 18 21(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) ORLANDO FL 34 9 12(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) COCOA BEACH FL 34 5 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PATRICK AFB 34 5 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) FT PIERCE FL 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) VENICE FL 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) TAMPA FL 34 31 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CEDAR KEY FL 34 45 21(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 5 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ST MARKS FL 34 9 12(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ST MARKS FL 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 15 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 290N 850W 34 43 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) GFMX 290N 850W 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm COLIN Public Advisory Number 5
2016-06-06 16:56:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 061456 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 ...RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 87.0W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Englewood * Sebastian Inlet Florida to South Santee River South Carolina Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Colin. Additional warnings or watches may be required for parts of this area later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was estimated near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 87.0 West. Colin is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected this afternoon. A rapid northeastward motion is expected tonight and Tuesday. On this track, the center of Colin is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend area late this afternoon or evening, move across portions of Florida and southeastern Georgia early Tuesday morning, and move near the southeastern coast of the United States later on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, western to northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas through Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts possible in a few locations. Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft. Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along the Atlantic coast from Florida to South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Gulf coast within the warning area this afternoon, and the Atlantic coast within the warning area by early Tuesday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across portions of Florida and far southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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