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Summary for Hurricane Douglas (EP3/EP082020)

2020-07-24 04:43:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...POWERFUL HURRICANE DOUGLAS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 5:00 PM HST Thu Jul 23 the center of Douglas was located near 14.9, -138.8 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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Hurricane Douglas Public Advisory Number 15

2020-07-24 04:43:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 240243 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE DOUGLAS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 138.8W ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Douglas. Watches could be issued on Friday for a portion of the area. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 138.8 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a gradual decrease in forward speed and a slight turn toward the west. On the forecast track Douglas will approach the Hawaiian Islands Saturday night, and be near those Islands on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Douglas is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening expected to begin on Friday and continue through the weekend. Douglas is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Hawaiian Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Douglas are expected to begin affecting portions of the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2020-07-24 04:43:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 240243 PWSEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 50 76 X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) 15N 140W 64 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 15N 145W 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 7(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 32(32) 23(55) X(55) X(55) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 1(48) X(48) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 2(38) X(38) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 3(23) X(23) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BRADSHAW AAF 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 3(20) X(20) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 6(33) X(33) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) 21N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 5(31) X(31) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 9(32) X(32) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) X(24) 21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 6(35) X(35) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) HANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) X(30) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) 1(28) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) JOINT BASE PHH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) 21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-07-24 04:43:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 240242 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 138.8W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 138.8W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 138.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 141.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.1N 144.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.2N 147.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.2N 150.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.0N 153.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.5N 156.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.3N 161.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 21.8N 168.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 138.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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