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Summary for Hurricane Douglas (EP3/EP082020)

2020-07-22 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... As of 11:00 AM HST Wed Jul 22 the center of Douglas was located near 12.1, -130.9 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane Douglas Public Advisory Number 10

2020-07-22 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 222038 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 ...DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 130.9W ABOUT 1570 MI...2525 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1690 MI...2715 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Douglas. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Douglas was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 130.9 West. Douglas is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by this evening, and a west- northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast to continue into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Douglas could become a major hurricane on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2020-07-22 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 222038 PWSEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 1 20(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 135W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 30(30) 36(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) X(35) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 1(35) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 8(30) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KAUNAKAKAI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) JOINT BASE PHH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-07-22 22:38:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 222038 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 130.9W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 130.9W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.1N 138.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.4N 141.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.6N 145.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.7N 148.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 154.0W...NEAR HAWAII MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.0W...NEAR HAWAII MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 130.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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