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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-07-22 16:57:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 221456 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 Douglas has resumed strengthening, after remaining steady state for almost 24 hours. The system has developed a ragged eye during the past couple of hours, although the cirrus from the inner-core convection has been obscuring that feature somewhat. There is a wide range among the satellite intensity estimates--between 55 kt and 77 kt--and the latest objective guidance is right at the hurricane threshold. Therefore, Douglas has been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane, the first of the 2020 eastern Pacific season. During the period of reliable records, this is the 4th latest date on which the first hurricane of the season has formed. Douglas continues to move westward, or 265/13 kt, due south of a mid-level ridge which extends from the Baja California peninsula to 140W. This ridge is not expected to change much in strength or position in the coming days, and Douglas is therefore expected to move westward or west-northwestward, gradually gaining latitude, during the entire forecast period. There is very little spread among the track models, although the new suite of models is a little bit faster compared to the previous forecast. The updated NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly, although it should be noted that the overall forecast path has changed very little. With Douglas's improved structure, low shear and warm sea surface temperatures (28-29C) should support further strengthening during the next 36 hours or so. There's still a significant chance of rapid intensification during that period, with the GFS- and ECWMF-based SHIPS RI guidance both over 50 percent. After that time, oceanic heat content values fall below zero along Douglas's forecast track, and it is likely that the hurricane would begin to gradually weaken, although not considerably so since vertical shear is not expected to increase until about day 4. SHIPS, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble are in very good agreement, especially during the first part of the forecast period, and so the NHC intensity forecast closely follows those solutions. This new forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity compared to previous forecasts. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 11.8N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 12.0N 131.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 13.1N 134.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 14.4N 137.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 15.7N 140.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 17.0N 143.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 18.0N 146.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 19.0N 152.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 20.0N 158.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-07-22 16:56:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 221455 PWSEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 52(53) 6(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane Douglas (EP3/EP082020)
2020-07-22 16:55:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS RESUMES STRENGTHENING AND BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2020 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON... As of 5:00 AM HST Wed Jul 22 the center of Douglas was located near 11.8, -129.5 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Douglas Public Advisory Number 9
2020-07-22 16:55:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 221455 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 ...DOUGLAS RESUMES STRENGTHENING AND BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2020 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 129.5W ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1785 MI...2870 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 129.5 West. Douglas is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the day. A turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, and this motion should continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or two. Some weakening could begin on Friday once Douglas begins to move over cooler waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-07-22 16:55:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 221455 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 129.5W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 129.5W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 128.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.0N 131.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.1N 134.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.4N 137.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.7N 140.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 143.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 146.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.0N 152.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.0N 158.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 129.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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