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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 12

2020-07-23 10:42:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 649 WTPZ23 KNHC 230842 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 134.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 134.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 133.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.0N 136.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 139.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.6N 145.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.6N 148.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.4N 151.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.5N 157.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 21.0N 163.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 134.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2020-07-23 10:42:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230842 PWSEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 15N 140W 34 X 77(77) 12(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 140W 50 X 27(27) 25(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 15N 140W 64 X 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 2(42) X(42) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 7(43) X(43) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 1(35) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) X(28) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 3(24) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) 21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 3(24) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) JOINT BASE PHH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Douglas Graphics

2020-07-23 04:56:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 02:56:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 02:56:19 GMT

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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 11

2020-07-23 04:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230243 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 Douglas's cloud pattern has improved quickly since the last advisory, with an eye becoming more distinct within an area of cold cloud tops and expanding outflow in all quadrants. The initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt. This is in agreement with the latest SATCON estimate and a blend of the latest ADT and SATCON estimates. The hurricane has another 24 hours or so over SSTs above 28C with very low vertical shear, and rapid intensification appears to be underway. Given the current satellite trends and the SHIPS RII showing a 50 percent chance of a 30-kt intensity increase in 24 h, the NHC forecast has been increased above the guidance in the short term, showing the system peaking at 110 kt in 24 h, although timing the peak intensity during rapid strengthening is quite difficult. By 36 h, SSTs cool along the forecast track but the shear remains low, which should result in gradual weakening. Late in the period, an increase in shear and a drier airmass should result in continued gradual weakening. Douglas is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, and all interests there should monitor forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. The initial motion estimate is now toward the west-northwest or 285/15. Douglas should continue on a general west-northwestward motion for the next 72 hours under the influence of an expansive mid-level ridge extending across much of the central and eastern North Pacific. The track will turn more toward the west late in the period as Douglas moves near the Hawaiian Islands. The new NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 12.5N 132.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 13.4N 134.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.6N 137.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.9N 140.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 17.1N 143.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 18.2N 146.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 19.2N 149.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 20.3N 155.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 21.0N 162.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Hurricane Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2020-07-23 04:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230243 PWSEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 8 13(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 140W 34 X 4( 4) 70(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 35(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 9(40) X(40) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 22(43) X(43) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 2(33) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 4(27) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 8(24) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 9(25) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) JOINT BASE PHH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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