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Tropical Storm Douglas Graphics
2020-07-22 10:35:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2020 08:35:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2020 09:31:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-22 10:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220834 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 The overall appearance of Douglas has changed little over the past several hours. Satellite images show a continuation of dry air trying to be worked out of the eastern portion of the cyclone's circulation. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB indicate that the initial advisory intensity remains 55 kt. The majority of intensity guidance continues to suggest that Douglas will soon overcome the dry air that has been holding the cyclone back from strengthening. And, the system is forecast to remain in a favorable environment for intensification for the next day or so. Beyond 36 h, the combination of cooler SSTs and dry air should cause Douglas to slowly weaken. The latest NHC forecast is a blend of the corrected consensus HCCA and the ICON and IVCN consensus aids. Based on this forecast, Douglas should become a hurricane sometime on Wednesday. Douglas is moving westward at around 13 kt. The ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to become oriented east-to-west while building westward over the next day or so. This should induce a gradual turn to the west-northwest along with a slight increase in forward speed. This general west-northwest motion is then forecast to continue through the remainder of the 5-day period. The model guidance has trended a bit faster throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast now lies in between the clustered consensus aids and the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 11.9N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 12.0N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 12.9N 132.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 14.1N 135.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 15.5N 137.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 16.7N 140.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.8N 143.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 19.1N 149.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 19.8N 155.3W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Douglas (EP3/EP082020)
2020-07-22 10:33:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM ... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... As of 11:00 PM HST Tue Jul 21 the center of Douglas was located near 11.9, -128.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Douglas Public Advisory Number 8
2020-07-22 10:33:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 220833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 ...DOUGLAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM ... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 128.0W ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1875 MI...3020 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 128.0 West. Douglas is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest along with an increase in forward speed is forecast to occur by late Wednesday. The west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue at least through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Douglas is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-07-22 10:33:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 220833 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 128.0W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 128.0W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 127.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.0N 129.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 12.9N 132.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.1N 135.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.5N 137.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.7N 140.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.8N 143.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 19.1N 149.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 19.8N 155.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 128.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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