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Hurricane Douglas Graphics
2020-07-23 16:47:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 14:47:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 14:47:44 GMT
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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-07-23 16:47:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231447 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 The intensity of Douglas has leveled off in the overnight hours with the eyewall convection weakening, but the eye temperatures becoming a lot warmer, suggesting that the system has become a little more steady state. The wind speed is kept at 105 kt, which nearly matches the latest CIMSS satellite consensus (SATCON). The cyclone has less than a day over warm water left to intensify before it encounters SSTs less than 26C. Douglas should only slowly weaken thereafter during the next few days due to the cooler waters along the predicted track since the vertical shear should remain low through Saturday. As the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, while the SSTs increase, so does the shear, and thus a continued weakening is forecast. Model guidance is consistent from the last forecast, and no significant changes were made to the NHC wind speed prediction. Douglas has been moving a little faster to the west-northwest, or 290/17. A large mid-level ridge over the eastern and central Pacific should continue to steer the hurricane on this general course and speed for the next couple of days, with some deceleration and a westward turn by late in the weekend. While the guidance remains in very good agreement, the only significant change to note is that this forecast is a bit faster than the previous one, but not as fast as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 13.6N 135.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 14.5N 138.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.8N 141.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 17.0N 144.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 18.1N 147.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 19.1N 150.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 19.8N 153.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 20.7N 159.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 21.5N 165.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-07-23 16:46:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 231446 PWSEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 4 93(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 140W 50 X 77(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 15N 140W 64 X 49(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 1(46) X(46) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 12(42) X(42) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 21(36) X(36) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) X(22) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 1(26) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 1(29) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 1(26) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) 21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) X(27) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) HANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 1(25) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) JOINT BASE PHH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) 20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) 21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Douglas (EP3/EP082020)
2020-07-23 16:46:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY-3 HURRICANE... As of 5:00 AM HST Thu Jul 23 the center of Douglas was located near 13.6, -135.9 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane Douglas Public Advisory Number 13
2020-07-23 16:46:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 231446 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...DOUGLAS MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY-3 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 135.9W ABOUT 1335 MI...2150 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Douglas. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Douglas was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 135.9 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a gradual decrease in forward speed and a slight turn toward the west. Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Douglas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible today before a gradual weakening starts on Friday and continues through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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