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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-07-23 16:45:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 231445 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 135.9W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..165NE 135SE 135SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 135.9W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 135.1W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 138.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.8N 141.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 144.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.1N 147.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.1N 150.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.8N 153.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.7N 159.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 165.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 135.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Douglas Graphics
2020-07-23 11:02:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 09:02:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 09:03:01 GMT
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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-07-23 10:42:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230842 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 Douglas has rapidly intensified since earlier today, with satellite images showing a ragged, but nearly clear eye surrounded by cold cloud tops of -70 C. There appears to be a little dry air intrusion across the northern portion of the circulation, which is limiting the amount of deep convection wrapping around that part of the eye. Both Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 5.5/100 kt, while the ADT and SATCON estimate averages have increased to 105 kt. Since the cyclone's appearance has improved slightly since these estimates arrived, the advisory initial intensity has been set at 105 kt, making Douglas a major hurricane. The environmental conditions supporting the rapid intensification appear at their best at this time as the cyclone is over SSTs of over 28 C, with low wind shear in a moist air mass. If the cyclone can fight off the dry air in the northern semicircle, some additional strengthening is possible, especially early Thursday. However, Douglas should be gradually moving into a less hospitable environment for strengthening over the next few days, and in 36 h the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm and into a region where the 500-700 mb relative humidity is less than 60 percent. Later on in the forecast period, wind shear is also expected to be on the increase. These factors should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken beginning Thursday night. Douglas is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, and all interests there should monitor forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. The NHC forecast was adjusted higher in the first 12 h based on the initial intensity, and is very close to the previous forecast after that time. This intensity forecast closely follows the various consensus aids. The initial motion is west-northwest or 295/15. Douglas should continue on a general west-northwestward motion for the next few days, steered by a large mid-level ridge extending across much of the central and eastern North Pacific. The cyclone is then forecast to turn more toward the west late in the forecast period as it moves near the Hawaiian Islands. The track guidance is tightly clustered and the new NHC is little changed from the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 13.1N 134.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.0N 136.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 15.3N 139.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 17.6N 145.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 18.6N 148.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 19.4N 151.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 20.5N 157.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 21.0N 163.7W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Hurricane Douglas (EP3/EP082020)
2020-07-23 10:42:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 11:00 PM HST Wed Jul 22 the center of Douglas was located near 13.1, -134.0 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane Douglas Public Advisory Number 12
2020-07-23 10:42:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 648 WTPZ33 KNHC 230842 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 ...DOUGLAS BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 134.0W ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Douglas. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 134.0 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Douglas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible on Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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