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Summary for Hurricane Douglas (EP3/EP082020)
2020-07-23 04:42:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... As of 5:00 PM HST Wed Jul 22 the center of Douglas was located near 12.5, -132.6 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Douglas Public Advisory Number 11
2020-07-23 04:42:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 230242 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 ...DOUGLAS STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 132.6W ABOUT 1570 MI...2530 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Douglas. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Douglas was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 132.6 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Douglas is forecast to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-07-23 04:42:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230242 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.6W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.6W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 131.9W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.4N 134.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.6N 137.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 140.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.1N 143.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.2N 146.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.2N 149.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.3N 155.5W...NEAR HAWAII MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.0N 162.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 132.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane Douglas Graphics
2020-07-22 22:57:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2020 20:57:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2020 21:31:56 GMT
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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-07-22 22:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 222039 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 Douglas's structure has continued to improve, with a more well-defined eye becoming apparent in visible and microwave satellite images. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range from T4.0/65 kt and T5.0/90 kt, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT is 4.0. Douglas's initial intensity is therefore raised to 70 kt as a blend of the satellite estimates. The hurricane has begun to gain some latitude, and the initial motion is just north of due west, or 275/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed since earlier this morning, with a persistent mid-tropospheric ridge to Douglas's north expected to be the main driving force for the entire 5-day forecast period. Douglas is forecast to turn west-northwestward by this evening, and then maintain that heading with some increase in forward speed through day 4 as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands. A bend back to the west is then expected at the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast lies right along the forecast path from the previous advisory through 60 hours, although it has been shifted slightly north on days 3-5 based on an overall shift of the guidance envelope at those times. Confidence in the track forecast at this stage is rather high. Intensity-wise, low shear and sea surface temperature of 28-29C favor continued strengthening, potentially at a rapid rate for the next 24 hours. SHIPS, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble all bring the intensity near or at major hurricane strength in 24-36 hours, which qualifies as rapid intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is in line with these models and lies near the upper bound of the guidance envelope given the favorable conditions. Some weakening is expected to begin by 48 hours due to cooler waters, but since vertical shear is not expected to increase until around day 4, the weakening rate is likely to be gradual. This forecast increases the chance that Douglas could maintain hurricane intensity as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands, and all interests on the islands should monitor the forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 12.1N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 15.1N 138.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 16.4N 141.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 17.6N 145.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 18.7N 148.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 20.0N 154.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII 120H 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR HAWAII $$ Forecaster Berg
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