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Tropical Storm Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-07-22 10:33:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 220833 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 33(33) 14(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Douglas Graphics
2020-07-22 04:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2020 02:37:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2020 02:37:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-07-22 04:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 This afternoon's satellite presentation reveals a tropical cyclone that's struggling with the inhibiting factors from mid-level dry air intrusion. Cloud tops near the center of circulation have warmed considerably during the past few hours, and the primary convective band in the east semicircle has become a bit fragmented. A blend of an earlier SATCON of 52 kt, an ADT objective estimate of 51 kt and a Dvorak satellite classification of T3.5 from both TAFB and SAB supports holding the initial intensity at 55 kt, although the aforementioned recent changes in the cloud pattern may consider this as a bit generous. The better performing HFIP HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity guidance still show Douglas shaking off the dry air invasion and strengthening into a hurricane in 12 hours, and the official forecast reflects this. The consensus intensity models and the FV3/GFS SHIPS show the cyclone reaching a peak intensity in around two days. Afterward, Douglas will be moving over 25-deg-C oceanic temperatures and into stable air mass. These negative contributions should, therefore, induce a slow weakening trend through day 5. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/12 kt within the mid-tropospheric easterly steering flow provided by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north of Douglas. This ridge is forecast to gradually build westward in response to a retreating large cut-off low near the Hawaiian Islands. As a result, Douglas should progressively turn West-northwestward by late Wednesday. and this general motion is forecast to continue for the remainder of the 5-day forecast period. The official NHC forecast is quite similar to the previous one with only a slight adjustment to the right beyond 72 hours through 120 hours in order to conform to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 12.1N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 12.1N 128.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 12.6N 130.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 13.6N 133.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 15.1N 136.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 16.4N 138.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 17.5N 141.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 18.8N 147.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 19.4N 153.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-07-22 04:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 220232 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 58(61) 3(64) X(64) X(64) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Douglas (EP3/EP082020)
2020-07-22 04:31:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS MOVING DUE WEST WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH ... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... As of 5:00 PM HST Tue Jul 21 the center of Douglas was located near 12.1, -126.7 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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