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Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Forecast Advisory Number 17

2021-09-23 10:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230832 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 41.6W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 41.6W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 41.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.4N 42.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.8N 42.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.7N 40.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.2N 38.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 41.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ROSE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Advisory Number 16

2021-09-23 07:01:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230501 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 40.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N 41.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.2N 42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.4N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N 33.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 40.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Rose Graphics

2021-09-23 04:39:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:24 GMT

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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Discussion Number 16

2021-09-23 04:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230238 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Rose continues to be devoid of deep convection as shear and dry mid-level air has taken their toll on the system. Although Rose appears to be well on its way to post-tropical cyclone status, it seems prudent to maintain advisories a little longer since the system is over warm waters and some convection could return overnight. If that does not occur, Rose is likely to become a remnant low by tomorrow morning, and that is what is indicated in the official forecast. The remnant low is forecast to continue to gradually spin down over the next day or two. The GFS and ECMWF suggest that some convection could re-develop in the 48-96 h time period when the remnants of Rose interact with an upper-level trough, but the NHC forecast once again does not call for re-generation at that time. In fact, the latest forecast calls for the system to become an open trough by 96 h, which is supported by the GFS. Rose has continued to move west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. The cyclone should turn northwestward very soon as it moves around the western flank of a low- to mid-level ridge. Rose or its remnants should then turn northward, northeastward, and then eventually east-northeastward as a deep-layer trough digs southward over the east-central Atlantic. The latest guidance envelope has again shifted westward in the short term, and the updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. After 36 h, the official forecast lies near the previous advisory and is close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 24.6N 40.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 25.7N 41.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/0000Z 27.2N 42.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1200Z 28.4N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 29.0N 39.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/1200Z 29.5N 36.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z 30.2N 33.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Summary for Tropical Depression Rose (AT2/AL172021)

2021-09-23 04:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ROSE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 22 the center of Rose was located near 24.6, -40.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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