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Tropical Depression Rose Public Advisory Number 16
2021-09-23 04:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230238 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 ...ROSE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 40.9W ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 40.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected tonight, with a turn toward the north forecast by Thursday night. A motion toward the northeast is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Rose is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-09-23 04:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230238 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 40.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N 41.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.2N 42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.4N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N 33.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 40.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-09-23 04:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 230238 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Depression Rose Graphics
2021-09-22 22:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 20:38:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 21:28:41 GMT
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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-09-22 22:37:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 222037 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Rose is currently comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds, with the only significant convection occurring about 120 n mi southeast of the center. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased, and are now 25 kt from TAFB and too weak to classify from SAB. Based mainly on earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 30 kt. Rose remain in an area of northwesterly shear and upper-level convergence, and dry mid-level air has been entraining into the circulation. The large-scale model guidance indicates that the hostile conditions will continue for at least another 36 h, and based on model forecasts of convection Rose is now expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 24 h or less. It should be noted that the GFS and HWRF models suggest the possibility that convection could re-develop in the 48-96 h period due to the remnant low interacting with an upper-level trough. For now, the intensity forecast will not call for re-generation at that time. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 300/9 kt. A northwestward motion is expected for the next 12-24 hours as Rose or its remnants are steered by a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. After that time, the system is expected to turn northward, northeastward, and eventually east-northeastward as it becomes steered by a deep-layer trough that includes the remnants of Odette. Since Rose has moved a bit to the west of the previous forecast, the guidance and the new forecast track have also shifted westward during the first 36 h. The new NHC track is to the east of the consensus models for the first 36 h, and close to the consensus aids after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 24.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 25.2N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 26.7N 41.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z 28.0N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 29.0N 39.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0600Z 29.5N 36.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 30.1N 34.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z 31.9N 30.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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