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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-09-21 04:45:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210245 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 Although Rose's convective pattern does not appear to be as organized as it was earlier today, a couple of ASCAT overpasses this evening indicated that the tropical cyclone has strengthened since this morning. Both ASCAT-A and -B instruments detected 40-45 kt winds around the southeastern portion of the circulation, and the initial intensity was raised to 45 kt around 0000 UTC with the issuance of a Tropical Cyclone Update. That intensity is maintained for this advisory, and it is also in agreement with subjective Dvorak data T-numbers of 3.0 from TAFB and SAB. The ASCAT data also indicated that the center of Rose is located to the west of the previous estimates, near the northwestern edge of the convective mass noted in satellite imagery. As a result of the center re-location, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 320/13 kt. Although the short-term portion of the track forecast has been adjusted westward due to the more westward initial position, there has been no overall change in forecast track reasoning for this advisory. Rose should continue northwestward around the western portion of a strong subtropical ridge during the next couple of days. Beyond that time, a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic should cause Rose to recurve northward, then northeastward, and finally east-northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The dynamical models are in general agreement on this scenario but there are some differences in how sharp Rose will turn, and how fast it will move northeastward late in the period. The new NHC track forecast shows a somewhat sharper turn than the previous advisory to be closer to the latest consensus aids. Rose has likely reached its peak intensity as increasing shear and the entrainment of drier mid-level air are likely to cause weakening by this time tomorrow. Additional weakening is expected after that time as a further increase in shear is anticipated when Rose nears the aforementioned trough in 2 to 3 days. The updated NHC wind speed forecast is slightly stronger at 12 and 24 hours due to the higher initial intensity, but is unchanged after that time. Given the expected hostile environmental conditions, it would not be surprising to see Rose wither more quickly and degenerate into a remnant low sooner than indicated below. That is indicated by at least some of the global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 18.9N 35.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 20.5N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 22.2N 37.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 23.5N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 24.8N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 26.1N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 27.3N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 29.0N 38.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 30.5N 33.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 8
2021-09-21 04:45:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210245 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 ...ROSE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 35.4W ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 35.4 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Rose is forecast to turn north-northwestward to northward on Thursday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated overnight. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday, and should continue during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rose (AT2/AL172021)
2021-09-21 02:32:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ROSE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 8:30 PM AST Mon Sep 20 the center of Rose was located near 18.7, -35.0 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rose Update Statement
2021-09-21 02:32:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 830 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT62 KNHC 210032 TCUAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 830 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 ...ROSE A LITTLE STRONGER... Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds in Rose are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The data also suggests that the center of Rose is slightly west of the previous forecast track. These changes will be reflected in the 11 PM AST (0300 UTC) advisory package. SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 35.0W ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-09-20 22:34:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 202033 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 Satellite images show that Rose hasn't changed much during the past several hours, with the center on the northern side of the cloud shield. The last microwave pass from a few hours ago showed that the mid- and low-level centers of the cyclone remained 60-90 n mi apart, which is probably a sign that it isn't strengthening. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt based on continuity, and hopefully scatterometer data will be available for the next advisory due to the recent high bias of the conventional satellite estimates. The window for strengthening of the tropical cyclone is closing soon due to increasing shear and likely intrusions of dry mid-level air. These factors should cause the storm to start a weakening trend sometime tomorrow. The long-term future of Rose doesn't look golden either due to further increasing shear from an incoming upper- level trough. The new forecast is just a shade lower than the previous one, near the model consensus, with Rose likely sinking to a depression in a few days and degenerating to a remnant low by day 5. The initial motion remains northwestward at about 14 kt. Rose is is likely to continue moving in that general direction during the next couple of days around the southwestern and western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge. Beyond that time, guidance is coming into good agreement on a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic causing the cyclone to recurve to the north, northeast and even east-northeastward by the weekend. While the models don't agree on how sharp of a turn will occur, they are at least consistent that this trough will take the storm into a hostile environment and decay. The new forecast is again adjusted well to northeast at long range, and still might not be far enough to the east. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 18.4N 34.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 20.0N 35.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 21.8N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 23.3N 37.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 24.5N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 26.0N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 27.3N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 29.2N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 31.5N 34.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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