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Tropical Depression Rose Public Advisory Number 12
2021-09-22 04:38:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220238 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 ...ROSE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 37.9W ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 37.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north is expected on Thursday, followed by a northeastward motion by Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little overall change in intensity is expected during the next couple of days, however Rose is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-09-22 04:38:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220238 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 37.9W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 37.9W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 37.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.9N 38.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 40.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.3N 41.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.6N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.9N 40.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.7N 37.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 31.3N 32.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 37.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-09-22 04:38:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 220238 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Rose Graphics
2021-09-21 22:37:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 20:37:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 20:37:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-09-21 22:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 212036 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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