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Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 9
2021-09-21 10:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210836 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 ...ROSE BEGINS TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 36.4W ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 36.4 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days followed by a turn to the north. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-09-21 10:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 210836 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-09-21 10:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 210836 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 36.4W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 36.4W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 36.2W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.4N 37.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.8N 38.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.0N 39.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.4N 40.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.7N 41.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.0N 40.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 30.7N 36.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 32.8N 31.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 36.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Rose Graphics
2021-09-21 04:46:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 02:46:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 02:46:42 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-09-21 04:45:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 210245 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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