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Summary for Tropical Depression Rose (AT2/AL172021)

2021-09-22 10:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DISORGANIZED ROSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 22 the center of Rose was located near 23.4, -38.4 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Advisory Number 13

2021-09-22 10:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220832 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 38.4W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 38.4W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 38.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.2N 39.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.5N 40.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.0N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.4N 40.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.5N 38.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.1N 36.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 31.2N 31.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 38.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression Rose Graphics

2021-09-22 04:39:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 02:39:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 02:39:41 GMT

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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Discussion Number 12

2021-09-22 04:38:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 942 WTNT42 KNHC 220238 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 Strong northwesterly shear has continued to take a toll on Rose this evening with the remaining deep convection becoming further separated from the low-level center. Unfortunately Rose fell within the gaps of the ASCAT satellite instruments this evening, so there has been no recent scatterometer data. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have continued to decline, and these subjective estimates support lowering Rose's initial intensity to 30 kt. The environment ahead of the cyclone is expected to remain quite hostile with moderate westerly to northwesterly shear and a dry mid-level atmosphere. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest Rose will continue to produce bursts of convection over the eastern portion of its circulation during the next few days which could allow it remain a tropical cyclone during that time. Alternatively, the shear and dry air could cause the system to degenerate into a remnant low much sooner. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and calls for little overall change in strength during the next couple of days, followed by degeneration into a remnant low by day 3. Rose continues to decelerate, now moving northwestward at about 9 kt. The depression should remain on a slow northwestward heading around the western portion of a subtropical ridge during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to turn northward, and then recurve northeastward ahead of a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The dynamical guidance envelope remained fairly steady this cycle and no significant change was made to the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 22.9N 37.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 23.9N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 25.0N 40.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 26.3N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 27.6N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 28.9N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 29.7N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z 31.3N 32.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Summary for Tropical Depression Rose (AT2/AL172021)

2021-09-22 04:38:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ROSE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 21 the center of Rose was located near 22.9, -37.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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