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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Public Advisory Number 59A
2019-09-08 01:46:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 072346 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 59A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...DORIAN RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NOVA SCOTIA... ...VERY STRONG WINDS AFFECTING MOST OF NOVA SCOTIA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...45.0N 62.9W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from East of Bar Harbor to Eastport Maine has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule * Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Prince Edward Island * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East Pubnico * Fundy National Park to Shediac * Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour * Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island * Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour * Magdalen Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian was estimated near latitude 45.0 North, longitude 62.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is racing northeastward near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. After that, a turn toward the east-northeast is expected. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should continue to move over Nova Scotia during the next few hours, then move over the Gulf of St. Lawrence near Prince Edward Island tonight. The cyclone should then pass near or over northern Newfoundland and eastern Labrador late tonight or Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts, and these winds are occuring primarily over water. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken during the next couple of days, and it is forecast to drop below hurricane strength by Sunday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the south of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). Hart Island, Nova Scotia, recently reported a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to continue over portions of Nova Scotia during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are also expected elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area later tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area late tonight and Sunday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday Night: Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding. SURF: Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-08 01:06:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NOVA SCOTIA... ...VERY STRONG WINDS AFFECTING MOST OF NOVA SCOTIA... As of 8:00 PM AST Sat Sep 7 the center of Dorian was located near 45.0, -62.9 with movement NE at 30 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Graphics
2019-09-07 22:47:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 20:47:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 21:24:51 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 59
2019-09-07 22:45:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 072045 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 59 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Dorian has lost tropical cyclone characteristics and is now a hurricane-force extratropical low. The initial intensity is held at 85 kt based mainly on the earlier scatterometer data. The initial motion is 040/26. Strong mid-latitude southwesterly flow should steer Dorian across Nova Scotia and other portions of eastern Canada during the next 24-30 h. After that, the cyclone should turn east-northeastward over the far north Atlantic, with this motion continuing for the rest of the system's life. Global model guidance indicates that the post-tropical cyclone should gradually weaken as it moves across eastern Canada, and the new intensity forecast brings the winds below hurricane force by 24 h. Additional weakening should then occur until the storm is absorbed by a large extratropical low to its north. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern Canada has ended. Key Messages: 1. Although Dorian has lost tropical cyclone characteristics, it will have significant impacts in portions of eastern Canada tonight and Sunday. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 43.9N 63.9W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/0600Z 47.0N 61.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 08/1800Z 50.2N 56.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0600Z 53.0N 50.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1800Z 55.4N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 59
2019-09-07 22:45:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 772 FONT15 KNHC 072045 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 59 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 24(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ILE ST PIERRE 34 48 17(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 77 13(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) BURGEO NFLD 50 7 49(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) BURGEO NFLD 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 96 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PTX BASQUES 50 81 17(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) PTX BASQUES 64 X 56(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) EDDY POINT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EDDY POINT NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EDDY POINT NS 64 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SYDNEY NS 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SYDNEY NS 50 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) SYDNEY NS 64 31 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SABLE ISLAND 50 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 64 57 X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ST JOHN NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EASTPORT ME 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BAR HARBOR ME 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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