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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-07 22:44:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 7 the center of Dorian was located near 43.9, -63.9 with movement NE at 30 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Public Advisory Number 59
2019-09-07 22:44:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 072044 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number 59 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.9N 63.9W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ESE OF EASTPORT MAINE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule * Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME * Prince Edward Island * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East Pubnico * Fundy National Park to Shediac * Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour * Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island * Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian was located near latitude 43.9 North, longitude 63.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. After that, a turn toward the east-northeast is expected. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should cross the coast of Nova Scotia near Halifax during the next few hours, then move across eastern Nova Scotia into the Gulf of St. Lawrence near Prince Edward Island tonight. The center should then pass near or over northern Newfoundland and eastern Labrador late tonight or Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken during the next couple of days, and it is forecast to drop below hurricane strength by Sunday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the south of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). Osbourne Head, Nova Scotia, recently reported sustained winds of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a wind gust of 88 mph (142 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across much of Nova Scotia, and hurricane conditions are expected to spread over portions of Nova Scotia during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are also expected elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area later tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Maine during the next few hours. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday Night: Far eastern Maine...1 to 3 inches. Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding. SURF: Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 59
2019-09-07 22:44:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 749 WTNT25 KNHC 072044 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 59 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO BRULE * WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO HAWKE'S BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * MAGDALEN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST PUBNICO * FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC * STONE'S COVE TO INDIAN HARBOUR * HAWKE'S BAY TO FOGO ISLAND * MUTTON BAY TO MARY'S HARBOUR A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 63.9W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 100SE 90SW 0NW. 50 KT.......170NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT.......270NE 240SE 210SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 600SE 720SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 63.9W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 64.6W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 47.0N 61.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 50 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 240SE 210SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 50.2N 56.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...350NE 270SE 240SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 53.0N 50.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...300NE 240SE 240SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 55.4N 43.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.9N 63.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Graphics
2019-09-07 22:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 20:35:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 21:38:21 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 27
2019-09-07 22:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072034 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 Juliette has not produced any deep convection for almost 18 hours, and it is therefore being declared a post-tropical cyclone. A recent ASCAT-C pass showed a small area of 30-35 kt winds to the north of the center, and the initial intensity is therefore being set at 35 kt. A gradual spin down of the circulation is expected with Juliette remaining over waters of 24-25C during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, water temperatures do increase a bit to near 26C, but by then incredibly belligerent westerly shear, on the order of 40-50 kt, is expected to be affecting the remnant low. Still, the global models carry a low through the next 5 days, and that is reflected in the official forecast. The initial motion is 280/11 kt. The low should turn on a due west heading for the next 2-3 days, steered by the low-level trade winds. After day 3, the remnant low is expected to interact with a mid- to upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, which could cause it to turn northwestward and slow down by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 24.4N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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