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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Graphics
2019-09-03 13:33:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 11:33:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 09:31:41 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven (AT2/AL072019)
2019-09-03 13:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Seven was located near 23.5, -94.6 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Public Advisory Number 1A
2019-09-03 13:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 031132 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 94.6W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * La Pesca to Barra El Mezquital A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 94.6 West. The system is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward the west or west-northwest is forecast on Wednesday. This motion could bring the system near or over the coast of northeastern Mexico late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later today and become a tropical storm by tonight. Shower and thunderstorm activity has been increasing in organization this morning, and the low is likely to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area during the day Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-09-03 11:09:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030909 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Overnight scatterometer wind data and infrared satellite imagery indicate that the broad low pressure system located over the west-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better defined, but still lacks a well-defined center. However, the scatterometer indicated surface winds of 30-33 kt in the northwestern quadrant and observations from Buoy 42002 north of the center have been indicating wind speeds of 25-27 kt at 4-meter elevation. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on Potential Cyclone Seven. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 260/06 kt. The general motion of the broad low is expected to be westward, being steered by a deep-layer ridge located over the southern United States. It is possible, however, that an apparent west-northwestward motion could occur if the low-level center redevelops farther north into the deep convection. The NHC forecast track is similar to, but a little north of, the consensus model TVCN. Some slight strengthening is forecast during then next 36-48 hours before the low moves inland over northeastern Mexico. However, the broad and large circulation should prevent any rapid intensification from occurring. The official intensity forecast is similar to the IVCN consensus model. The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 23.5N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/1800Z 23.4N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 04/0600Z 23.4N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 23.7N 97.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 24.3N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-09-03 11:03:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 030902 CCA TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 CORRECTED TO SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS AT 3/1800Z CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LA PESCA NORTHWARD TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PESCA TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 94.3W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 94.3W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 94.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.4N 95.2W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.4N 96.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.7N 97.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.3N 98.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 94.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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