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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-08-25 22:31:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 563 WTPZ45 KNHC 252031 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 The initial motion is 340/07 kt. Ivo has slowed down due to the system weakening and becoming vertically shallow. A slow north-northwestward motion is expected today and this evening, followed by a turn toward the north late tonight or early Monday morning. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the middle of the tightly clustered consensus models. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based mainly on continuity with the previous forecast. The inner-core region of Ivo's circulation has been devoid of any convection for more than 12 hours. What little bit of thunderstorm activity that does exist well to the north-northwest and west of the center is not showing any signs of feeding back onto the cyclone and, therefore, Ivo has degenerated into a remnant low pressure system. Additional spin down of the shallow vortex is forecast due to the cyclone moving over sub-22 deg C sea-surface temperatures and continuing to ingest more cool and stable air, with dissipation likely by Tuesday. Although Ivo is no longer a tropical cyclone, significant swells generated by the low are still affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells will continue into tonight and could cause dangerous rip currents before subsiding on Monday. See products from your local weather office for additional information. This is the last NHC advisory on Ivo. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php . FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 26.0N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 26/0600Z 26.9N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1800Z 27.8N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0600Z 27.7N 117.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo (EP5/EP102019)
2019-08-25 22:30:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IVO DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 the center of Ivo was located near 26.0, -117.9 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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cyclone
posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Public Advisory Number 19
2019-08-25 22:30:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 252030 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 ...IVO DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 117.9W ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 117.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north is forecast to occur tonight or on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ivo is expected to dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are affecting the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and portions of the southern California coastline. These swells are likely to continue through this evening and could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Ivo. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php . $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Forecast Advisory Number 19
2019-08-25 22:30:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 252030 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 117.9W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 117.9W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 117.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.9N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.8N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.7N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 117.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON IVO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal Graphics
2019-08-24 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 02:35:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 03:24:26 GMT
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posttropical
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