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Tropical Storm EMILY Forecast Advisory Number 2

2017-07-31 13:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1200 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 311139 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017 1200 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER TO BONITA BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 83.2W AT 31/1200Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 83.2W AT 31/1200Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 84.0W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 27.7N 82.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 28.3N 80.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 29.8N 78.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.6N 76.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 83.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Storm EMILY (AT1/AL062017)

2017-07-31 13:39:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WEST OF TAMPA BAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 the center of EMILY was located near 27.7, -83.2 with movement E at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm EMILY Public Advisory Number 2

2017-07-31 13:39:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 311139 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emily Special Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WEST OF TAMPA BAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 83.2W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Anclote River southward to Bonita Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Bonita Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 83.2 West. Emily is moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected tonight or Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Emily is expected to move inland over the the west-central Florida peninsula later today and move across central Florida through tonight. Emily is expected to move offshore of the east-central Florida coast early Tuesday. NOAA Doppler radar data from Tampa, Florida, indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs this afternoon. Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical depression while it moves across the Florida peninsula tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida, 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4 inches possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area through this afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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