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Tropical Depression Emily Public Advisory Number 6

2017-08-01 10:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 010836 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Emily Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 ...POORLY ORGANIZED EMILY MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 80.1W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNE OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Emily was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 80.1 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, the center of Emily will move away from the east-central coast of Florida today and remain well off the southeast U.S. coast during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the day or so, but Emily is also forecast to lose its tropical characteristics within a day or two. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts up to 4 inches across portions of central and southern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Emily Forecast Discussion Number 6

2017-08-01 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 010835 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 Radar and surface observations over east-central Florida indicate that Emily's circulation has become quite elongated. Water vapor imagery also shows that drier mid-level air has moved over the northwestern portion of the circulation, which has limited the amount of convection near the center overnight. Some deep convection is noted along a trough axis well to the northeast of Emily. Earlier ASCAT data revealed a few 20-25 kt wind vectors just off the coast of Florida to the southeast of the center, so the initial intensity remains 25 kt for this advisory. Emily has been moving east-northeastward overnight. The cyclone remains embedded within the base of a mid-level trough that extends southwestward just off the southeastern United States coast. As this trough lifts out, Emily should accelerate northeastward between the western Atlantic ridge and another mid-level trough that will approach the southeast United States in a day or so. The global models shifted slightly westward this cycle, and the new NHC track has been nudged in that direction. The intensity forecast remains quite uncertain. Since Emily's circulation has become less defined and is near a weak frontal zone, it is possible that that system will be absorbed within the larger trough axis. For now, the NHC forecast assumes that Emily will maintain its identity and have a chance to restrengthen over the western Atlantic. Although the shear is not forecast to be prohibitive during the next day or so, the current structure and nearby dry air suggest any deepening should be slow to occur. This is supported by the global models which do not indicate much intensification. The NHC forecast is a little below the previous advisory and is close to guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Emily is forecast to become extratropical in about 36 hours, but it could dissipate or become post-tropical sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 28.3N 80.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 29.4N 78.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 31.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 32.8N 73.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/0600Z 34.4N 70.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/0600Z 37.0N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/0600Z 38.5N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Emily Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2017-08-01 10:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 010834 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017 0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Emily Forecast Advisory Number 6

2017-08-01 10:31:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 010831 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017 0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 80.1W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 80.1W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 80.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 29.4N 78.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.8N 73.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.4N 70.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.0N 64.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 38.5N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 80.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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