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Summary for Tropical Storm Emily (AT1/AL062017)
2017-07-31 17:10:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM EMILY MAKES LANDFALL ON ANNA MARIA ISLAND... As of 11:10 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 the center of Emily was located near 27.5, -82.7 with movement E at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Emily Update Statement
2017-07-31 17:10:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT61 KNHC 311510 TCUAT1 Tropical Storm Emily Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 1110 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM EMILY MAKES LANDFALL ON ANNA MARIA ISLAND... NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate that Tropical Storm Emily made landfall at 1045 AM EDT (1445 UTC) on Anna Maria Island, just west of Bradenton, Florida. SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 82.7W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM NW OF BRADENTON FLORIDA ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Emily Graphics
2017-07-31 16:39:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 31 Jul 2017 14:39:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 31 Jul 2017 14:39:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm Emily Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-07-31 16:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 311436 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 There has been little change in Emily's overall structure as seen in satellite and radar imagery over the past several hours. The inner-core convection has waxed and waned while the outer convective bands and rain shield on the south side of the small cyclone have remained fairly steady. Velocity data from the NOAA Tampa Bay WSR-88D Doppler radar has been indicating average velocities of 50-52 kt, with isolated bins of 55-62 kt, just south of the circulation center between 4000-5000 ft altitude during the past few hours. Using a standard adjustment factor of 80 percent still supports a surface wind speed estimate of 40 kt. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, after which slow weakening is expected as Emily moves across the Florida peninsula through tonight. After emerging off of the east-central Florida on Tuesday, some slow re- strengthening is forecast on days 2-3 when Emily will be moving over SSTs of 28C and the vertical wind shear will shift from northwesterly to southwesterly and decrease to 10-15 kt. By 96 h, the shear is forecast to increase to 25-30 kt, which should keep the intensity steady or induce slight weakening until Emily dissipates in about 120 h. Since Emily is not expected to regain tropical storm status before it moves offshore of the Florida east coast Tuesday morning, no watches or warnings are required for that area. The initial motion estimate is 090/08 kt. Emily is approaching the mouth of Tampa Bay, and landfall along the west-central Florida coast should occur by early afternoon. After landfall, the latest model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Emily turning east-northeastward tonight and moving across the central Florida peninsula as a depression, and emerging off of the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning. A mid-/upper-level trough currently located over the upper Midwest is forecast to dig southeastward and amplify along the southeastern U.S. coast by 24-36 h, accelerating Emily to the northeast over the open Atlantic through the remainder of the forecast period. The new NHC forecast track is just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the TVCN consensus model. The primary threat with Emily is expected to be locally heavy rainfall across central an southern portions of the Florida peninsula during the next day or two. However, a brief tornado will be possible across central and southern Florida today, along with isolated waterspouts over the coastal waters of southwestern Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 27.6N 82.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 27.7N 81.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 01/1200Z 28.9N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 02/0000Z 30.5N 77.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 32.2N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 35.3N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 37.7N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Emily Public Advisory Number 3
2017-07-31 16:34:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 311434 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emily Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 ...EMILY APPROACHING THE MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 82.8W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Bonita Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 82.8 West. Emily is moving toward the east near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed are expected by tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Emily is expected to move inland over the the west-central Florida peninsula this afternoon, and move across central Florida through tonight. Emily is forecast to move offshore of the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs this afternoon. Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical depression while it moves across the Florida peninsula later today and tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida, 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4 inches possible. Reports from amateur radio operators indicate that street and road flooding has already been occurring in Manatee and Sarasota Counties near the Myakka River. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area through this afternoon. TORNADOES: A brief tornado could occur across the central and southern Florida Peninsula today, with isolated waterspouts possible over the coastal waters of southwestern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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