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Tropical Storm Emily Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-07-31 16:34:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 311434 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EMILY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017 1500 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 18(20) X(20) X(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) PATRICK AFB 34 2 18(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) FT PIERCE FL 34 3 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) TAMPA FL 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Emily Forecast Advisory Number 3
2017-07-31 16:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 311434 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017 1500 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER TO BONITA BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.8W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.8W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 83.3W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 27.7N 81.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 28.9N 79.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.5N 77.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.2N 75.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.3N 70.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 37.7N 63.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 82.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm EMILY Graphics
2017-07-31 14:53:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 31 Jul 2017 12:53:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 31 Jul 2017 12:53:24 GMT
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Tropical Storm EMILY Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-07-31 13:52:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 311152 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Emily Special Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 This Special Advisory is to upgrade the depression to Tropical Storm Emily, now located just west of Tampa Bay, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for a portion of the west- central coast of Florida. Doppler velocity data from the NWS Tampa Bay WSR-88D radar indicate average velocities of 48-50 kt on the south side of the circulation center between 4500-6500 ft altitude during the past hour. Using a standard adjustment factor of 80 percent yields an equivalent surface wind of about 40 kt. Therefore, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Emily. Little change in strength is expected until landfall occurs this afternoon, followed by slow weakening as Emily moves across the Florida peninsula tonight. The initial motion estimate is 095/07 kt. There is no change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Emily is expected to make landfall along the west-central Florida coast within the warning area by late afternoon, and then continue eastward across the central Florida peninsula tonight, emerging off of the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning. The primary threat with this system is expected to be locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula during the next couple of days. However, an isolated waterspout will also be possible in the coastal waters within the warning area. This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the standard Intermediate Public advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1200Z 27.7N 83.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 27.7N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 28.3N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 29.8N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 31.6N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm EMILY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-07-31 13:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 311140 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017 1200 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 AT 1200Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) THE VILLAGES 34 6 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ORLANDO FL 34 11 15(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) COCOA BEACH FL 34 4 21(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PATRICK AFB 34 4 21(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) FT PIERCE FL 34 4 15(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) W PALM BEACH 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 17 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) VENICE FL 34 41 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) TAMPA FL 34 30 4(34) X(34) X(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) CEDAR KEY FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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