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Tropical Depression Emily Public Advisory Number 4

2017-07-31 22:43:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 312043 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Emily Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 ...EMILY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 81.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF SEBRING FLORIDA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the remainder of the Florida west coast. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Emily was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 81.7 West. Emily is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this afternoon and early evening. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected by tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Emily will continue to move farther inland over the central Florida peninsula this evening, and move offshore of the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible while Emily moves across the central Florida peninsula tonight. Slow strengthening is forecast after Emily emerges over the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across southeast Florida, with isolated storm totals up to 8 inches possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Emily Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2017-07-31 22:43:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 312043 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017 2100 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 16 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PATRICK AFB 34 16 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) FT PIERCE FL 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression Emily Forecast Advisory Number 4

2017-07-31 22:42:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 312042 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017 2100 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 81.7W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 81.7W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 28.4N 80.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 29.9N 78.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.4N 76.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 35.6N 68.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 38.1N 61.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 81.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Emily Public Advisory Number 3A

2017-07-31 20:04:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 311804 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 3A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Corrected intensity in Discussion Section ...EMILY LOCATED INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 82.2W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF BARTOW FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Anclote River southward to Englewood. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Englewood to Bonita Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 82.2 West. Emily is moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this afternoon. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed are expected by tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Emily will continue to move farther inland over the west-central Florida peninsula this afternoon, and move across central Florida through tonight. Emily is forecast to move offshore of the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical depression while it moves across the Florida peninsula this afternoon and tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km), mainly southeast through south of the center. A wind gust to 38 mph was recently observed in Punta Gorda, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida, 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4 inches possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area through this afternoon. TORNADOES: A brief tornado could occur across the central and southern Florida Peninsula today, with isolated waterspouts possible over the coastal waters of southwestern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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