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Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
2018-09-23 10:33:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 08:33:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 09:21:53 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-09-23 10:32:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 959 WTNT41 KNHC 230832 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 Satellite images indicate that the depression is poorly organized. The circulation is becoming increasingly elongated, and it seems likely that a closed circulation may no longer exist. However, we are maintaining advisories for now to wait for visible imagery to better assess the low-level circulation. The depression continues to produce a few patches of deep convection, but these are confined to the east and northeast portions of the circulation due to about 35 kt of westerly shear. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. The system is moving into an environment of even stronger westerly wind shear. These hostile winds and dry air should cause the depression to dissipate, if it has not already, later today or tonight. The depression, or its remnants, are expected to move slowly west-northwestward for another day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.5N 55.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 15.0N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-09-23 10:32:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 914 FONT11 KNHC 230832 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112018)
2018-09-23 10:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 23 the center of Eleven was located near 14.5, -55.0 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 6
2018-09-23 10:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 721 WTNT31 KNHC 230831 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 ...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 55.0W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ENE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 55.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow west-northwest to northwest motion is expected until the system dissipates in a day or so. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to dissipate by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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