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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112018)
2018-09-22 22:36:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR SUNDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 22 the center of Eleven was located near 13.6, -53.9 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 4
2018-09-22 22:36:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 900 WTNT31 KNHC 222036 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 53.9W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 53.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster west-northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue through dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to weaken to a remnant low tonight or Sunday and dissipate Sunday night east of the Lesser Antilles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-09-22 22:36:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 899 WTNT21 KNHC 222036 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 53.9W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 53.9W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 53.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.9N 54.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 56.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 53.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
2018-09-22 16:33:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 14:33:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 15:21:54 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-09-22 16:32:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 345 WTNT41 KNHC 221432 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 It appears that the depression's best day is behind it, as the cloud pattern has become less organized this morning. The low-level center is becoming increasingly separated from the warming cloud tops in what remains of the deep convection, which is displaced to the east by nearly 40 kt of west-southwesterly shear as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, consistent with a T1.0 classification from TAFB. Given that the strong shear is expected to continue and the depression will be moving through a relatively dry environment, the cyclone should gradually spin down and become a remnant low by 24 hours and dissipate by 48 hours. However, I would not be surprised if either or both of these occurred sooner. The center of the depression hasn't moved much during the past few hours, but a long-term initial motion estimate is 280/03. The weakening cyclone should be steered westward to west-northwestward by a low-level ridge. The new NHC track forecast is north of the previous one but remains along the southern edge of the guidance envelope given doubts about how much latitude such a shallow system will gain prior to dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 13.2N 53.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 13.6N 54.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 14.0N 55.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 14.4N 56.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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