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Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
2018-09-22 04:51:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 02:51:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 02:51:11 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-22 04:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 21 2018 562 WTNT41 KNHC 220249 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 21 2018 The small, but well-defined, low pressure system located about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has been producing steady convection for the past several hours. Although this convection is displaced to the south and east of the exposed low-level center due to strong westerly wind shear, it has persisted long enough to meet the NHC definition of a tropical cyclone. On this basis, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on ASCAT data from earlier today which showed a couple of 25-30 kt wind vectors in the northeast quadrant of the circulation. The intensity guidance is in extremely good agreement that the depression is unlikely to strengthen. All of the global models forecast an increase in upper-level winds over the small cyclone during the next 24 h. In fact, SHIPS diagnostics indicate that the 850-200 mb shear could exceed 30 kt by tomorrow morning, and will be near 40 kt within 48 h. As a result of this shear and some dry air also in the vicinity, the dynamical models unanimously forecast dissipation within 72 h, and most show that the depression will open into a trough of low pressure sooner than that. The NHC forecast conservatively maintains the tropical cyclone for 48 h, but it could weaken and dissipate sooner than currently indicated. The depression has recently been moving almost due west, but a longer-term motion yields an initial motion of 290/5 kt. A break in the subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should result in fairly weak steering flow for the next day or two, and only a slow west-northwestward to westward motion is anticipated. All of the typically-reliable track models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario. The NHC forecast is very close to HCCA at all forecast hours, and lies near the south edge of the tight guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 13.1N 53.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 13.5N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 13.8N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 14.2N 56.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 14.5N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112018)
2018-09-22 04:48:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 21 the center of Eleven was located near 13.1, -53.4 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 1
2018-09-22 04:48:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 21 2018 200 WTNT31 KNHC 220248 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 21 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 53.4W ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 53.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion will likely continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected for the next day or two. The depression is forecast to dissipate late this weekend or early next week before it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-09-22 04:48:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 212 FONT11 KNHC 220248 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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