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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-08-03 22:46:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 652 WTPZ45 KNHC 032046 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 Satellite images indicate that Hector is re-strengthening. The eye has cleared out again on visible imagery, with an increase in deep convection in the eyewall. Perhaps this shouldn't be a surprise because of Hector's small size, since these systems are known to fluctuate up and down rapidly. The initial intensity is set to 90 kt, between the 75 kt SATCON from CIMSS and a 102 kt estimate from SAB. The large-scale environment would seem to favor some intensification of Hector during the next couple of days, with SSTS of 27-27.5C, light shear, and moderate levels of mid-level moisture forecast. The new NHC forecast favors the dynamical models over the more statistical-based guidance and shows steady strengthening. This should be considered a low-confidence forecast due to the divergent guidance and the small size of Hector. At the end of the forecast, some weakening is shown due to increasing dryness in the mid-levels and a potential increase in shear. The initial motion remains 270/10 kt. There has been no change to the synoptic steering pattern. A large subtropical ridge should push the hurricane westward for the next couple of days. Due to a weakness in the ridge in 2 or 3 days, Hector is forecast to gain some latitude in the long range. Model guidance has been oscillating northward and southward with the forecast in the Central Pacific, with the latest guidance a little faster and farther south. The NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, but not as far south as the new model consensus. There is the potential for Hector to bring some impacts to portions of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to specify the magnitude of the impacts or where they could occur. This is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 14.1N 129.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 14.1N 131.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 14.1N 133.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 14.1N 135.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 14.2N 137.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 15.2N 142.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 16.2N 148.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Hector (EP5/EP102018)
2018-08-03 22:45:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HECTOR FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 3 the center of Hector was located near 14.1, -129.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Hector Public Advisory Number 13
2018-08-03 22:45:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 916 WTPZ35 KNHC 032045 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 ...HECTOR FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 129.8W ABOUT 1435 MI...2310 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1715 MI...2760 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hector was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 129.8 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Hector is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane tomorrow and continue at that intensity for a couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-08-03 22:45:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 03 2018 917 FOPZ15 KNHC 032045 PWSEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 2100 UTC FRI AUG 03 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 49 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 10N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 135W 34 X 14(14) 69(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 135W 50 X 1( 1) 38(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 16(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 71(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 62(65) 1(66) X(66) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 46(76) X(76) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) X(43) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 22(51) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 47(55) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Hector Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-08-03 22:45:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 03 2018 228 WTPZ25 KNHC 032044 TCMEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 2100 UTC FRI AUG 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 129.8W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 129.8W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 129.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.1N 131.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.1N 133.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.1N 135.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.2N 137.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.2N 142.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.2N 148.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 129.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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