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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Public Advisory Number 1A
2017-08-07 01:39:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 062339 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 82.7W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Belize City northward to the border of Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 82.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center will pass north of Honduras tonight and early Monday, then approach the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula Monday afternoon. The system is forecast to move across Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts, and an increase in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Upper-level winds are becoming more conducive for development, and the disturbance is likely to become a tropical cyclone overnight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Belize through Wednesday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the warning area by Monday afternoon or evening. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in portions of the watch area by Monday afternoon or evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Graphics
2017-08-06 22:42:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Aug 2017 20:42:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Aug 2017 21:24:02 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-08-06 22:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 062036 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017 Surface and scatterometer data indicate that the broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea still lacks a well-defined center of circulation. However, this system is likely to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late tomorrow, and advisories are being initiated to enable the issuance of a tropical storm warning and watch for Yucatan and Belize respectively. The scatterometer pass and NOAA data buoy observations indicate that the maximum winds are near 30 kt. The disturbance has been experiencing westerly vertical shear due to a nearby upper-level low and this has been inhibiting development. Global model predictions show that this low will soon dissipate and an upper-level anticyclone will become established over the area. Therefore, strengthening is likely with the main impediment being interaction with land. The official intensity forecast is a little above the model consensus. It should be noted that the system could become a hurricane between 72 and 96 hours, i.e. prior to reaching the Gulf coast of Mexico. Since the center lacks definition, the initial location and motion are quite uncertain, and my best guess for the current motion is 290/10. The steering pattern for the disturbance/tropical cyclone is expected to be fairly straightforward and persistent for the next few days. A general west-northwestward track is expected to continue until landfall in mainland Mexico. The official track forecast is generally a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 15.6N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 07/0600Z 16.6N 83.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 07/1800Z 18.0N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 19.0N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1800Z 19.9N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1800Z 21.0N 93.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 10/1800Z 21.2N 97.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven (AT2/AL072017)
2017-08-06 22:36:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 the center of Seven was located near 15.6, -82.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Public Advisory Number 1
2017-08-06 22:36:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 062036 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 82.0W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Chetumal northward and around the Yucatan Peninsula to Campeche. The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Belize City northward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Belize City northward to the border of Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 82.0 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center will move across the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts, and an increase in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development, and the disturbance is likely to become a tropical cyclone overnight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Belize through Wednesday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the warning area by Monday afternoon or evening. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in portions of the watch area by Monday afternoon or evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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