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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2017-08-17 16:45:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2017 14:45:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2017 15:29:30 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-08-17 16:40:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 171440 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 Satellite imagery, including experimental 1-minute data from GOES-16, indicates that the circulation of the low pressure area east of the Lesser Antilles is becoming better defined, and that a cluster of strong convection has formed just west of the center. Based on this and the potential for the system to become a tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, advisories are being initiated as a potential tropical cyclone. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, and it is likely the aircraft will find a tropical cyclone has formed. The initial motion is 270/15. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the system should steer it generally just north of due west through the forecast period, with this motion expected to bring the system through the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea in 24-36 h, into the central Caribbean by 72 h, and to the western Caribbean by 96-120 h. The forecast track lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and lies near the various consensus models. The system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and the large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should continue through the forecast period. This seems favorable for strengthening, and the SHIPS and LGEM models show slow, but steady, intensification. However, the GFS and ECMWF models forecast the system to degenerate to an easterly wave over the central Caribbean Sea, possibly due to dry air entrainment. The intensity forecast follows the trend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it respects the GFS/ECMWF forecasts by being on the low side of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 13.1N 54.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0000Z 13.1N 56.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 18/1200Z 13.2N 59.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 13.5N 63.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 13.9N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 14.5N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 15.5N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 17.0N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-17 16:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 17 the center of Nine was located near 13.1, -54.1 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 1
2017-08-17 16:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 171439 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 ...LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 54.1W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM E OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning For Martinique. The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24-36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. The system is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance should move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight, and it could become a tropical storm before reaching the Windward islands. If the current trends continue, the system will likely become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-08-17 16:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 171439 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 5( 5) 21(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 X 19(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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