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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 2
2017-08-28 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280232 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 80.8W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 80.8 West. The system is currently stationary. A slow and erratic motion is forecast through early Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will move near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight and Monday and move along the North Carolina coast Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical on Tuesday. A wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h) has recently been reported at NOAA's Gray's Reef buoy off the Georgia coast. Satellite and radar data indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms remain organized, but the center of circulation is not yet well defined. Only a slight increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area Monday night and Tuesday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-08-28 04:32:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 280232 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK * ALBEMARLE SOUND * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 80.8W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 80.8W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 80.7W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 30.9N 81.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 32.3N 79.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.4N 77.5W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 36.5N 73.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 39.9N 64.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 210SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 43.2N 53.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 47.2N 41.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 80.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics
2017-08-28 01:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Aug 2017 23:36:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Aug 2017 21:30:41 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-28 01:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 the center of Ten was located near 30.9, -80.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 1A
2017-08-28 01:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 272334 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 ...DISTURBANCE NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 80.3W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 80.3 West. The system is currently stationary. A slow northward motion is expected overnight and Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will move slowly offshore of the South Carolina coast tonight and Monday, and then move along or near the northeastern coast of South Carolina and the North Carolina coast Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or Monday. The disturbance is expected to become post-tropical on Tuesday. Satellite and radar data indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to be well organized, but the center of circulation is not yet well defined. Only a slight increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area Monday night through Tuesday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with isolated possible maximum amounts of 6 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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