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Tropical Depression Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

2020-11-06 09:36:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 060836 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) 2(21) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 9(27) 2(29) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 11(35) 2(37) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 8(24) 2(26) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 8(25) 2(27) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 11(37) 3(40) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 2(15) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 13(33) 4(37) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 15(32) 4(36) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 3(21) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 6(30) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 5(21) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GUANAJA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 5(23) 1(24) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 3(24) 1(25) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 3(28) 1(29) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 7(19) 4(23) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 2(17) 2(19) 2(21) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 11(28) 1(29) X(29) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) 1(14) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 25(26) 8(34) 1(35) X(35) 1(36) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number speed wind tropical

Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 23

2020-11-06 09:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 060836 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPRESSION. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.4W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.4W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 87.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 86.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.2N 82.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.8N 80.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.5N 79.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.6N 80.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 25.1N 83.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 25.9N 85.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 87.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)

2020-11-06 09:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM CST Fri Nov 6 the center of Eta was located near 17.3, -87.4 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 23

2020-11-06 09:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060836 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 ...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 87.4W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression. Interests in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as Tropical Storm Watches could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 87.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with this motion continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near Cuba Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today, with further strengthening likely through early Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall will continue catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. Flash flooding is possible across the Bahamas and Southern Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands Saturday or Saturday night. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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