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Tropical Depression Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

2020-11-05 09:52:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 270 FONT14 KNHC 050852 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) 1(18) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 7(23) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 3(16) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 3(18) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 3(27) 2(29) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)

2020-11-05 09:51:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 3:00 AM CST Thu Nov 5 the center of Eta was located near 14.5, -87.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 19

2020-11-05 09:51:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 785 WTNT34 KNHC 050851 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 ...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 87.0W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the poorly-defined center of Tropical Depression Eta was estimated near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 87.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected today. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is forecast to occur tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move across Honduras through this afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta will likely degenerate to a remnant low or trough of low pressure this morning. However, re-intensification is forecast once the center of Eta moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm). Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 19

2020-11-05 09:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 050850 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 87.0W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 70 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 87.0W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 86.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.0N 87.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.2N 87.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.6N 82.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 81.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 24.5N 81.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 87.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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