je.st
news
Tag: eta
Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-06 00:30:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 23:30:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 21:24:44 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
eta
Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-05 22:11:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 21:11:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 21:11:47 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
eta
Tropical Depression Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-11-05 21:54:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 052054 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 17(21) 6(27) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 17(21) 9(30) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) BELIZE CITY 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GUANAJA 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 6(14) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 8(25) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 3(24) 4(28) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) 2(25) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 8(23) 2(25) 1(26) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-11-05 21:54:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 052054 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 The low-level circulation of Eta has become disorganized to the point that the system more resembles a remnant low than a tropical cyclone. However, the system continues to produce convection in an area just north and northwest of the estimated center position, as well as in a cluster well to the northeast. Based on this, and the expectation that the system will start re-developing during the next several hours as it moves back over water, Eta is maintained as a tropical depression for this advisory. The initial intensity is increased to 30 kt based on scatterometer data, with those winds occuring well to the northeast of the center. The center appears to be just south of the northwestern coast of Honduras, and the initial motion is an uncertain 330/7. During the next 24 h, Eta should recurve northeastward in southwesterly flow between a ridge over the central Caribbean and a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. This motion should persist through about 72 h. After that, the trough is forecast to become a closed low in the vicinity of western Cuba, with Eta turning to the west-northwest as it interacts or merges with the low. While the models are in good agreement with the synoptic pattern, they are in poor agreement on the details of the track. The forecast tracks show possible landfalls in Cuba anywhere between 77W-83W, and after the turn some of the tracks are as far north as southern Florida while other stay over Cuba. In addition, there is a significant speed difference between the faster GFS/HWRF/HMON and the slower Canadian/ECMWF/UKMET. The low-confidence official forecast compromises between these various extremes and is not changed much from the previous forecast. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 h or so as Eta starts to re-organized over water. After that, gradual strengthening is expected until the system reaches Cuba in about 72 h, with the main limiting factor being increasing southwesterly shear during that time. From 72-120 h, there is a possibility that Eta will take on subtropical or hybrid characteristics as it interacts with the developing upper-level low. The intensity forecast will be held at 50 kt during that time due to this interaction. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. However, it lies below the bulk of the intensity guidance for the first 60 h and above the bulk of the guidance from 72-120 h. The new forecast track, intensity, and wind radii require a Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands at this time. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for portions of Cuba later tonight or on Friday. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a day or so. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 15.7N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/0600Z 16.4N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 06/1800Z 18.1N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 20.1N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 21.3N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1800Z 23.5N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 10/1800Z 24.5N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-05 21:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...SHOULD MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS... As of 3:00 PM CST Thu Nov 5 the center of Eta was located near 15.7, -87.7 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
eta
Sites : [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] next »