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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-11-05 03:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 050238 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 The rugged terrain of Central America is taking a toll on Eta. The low-level circulation is losing definition, and deep convection is well removed from the center. Eta was downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression a few hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at that value for this advisory. The strongest winds are likely occurring offshore over the Gulf of Honduras, as noted in earlier ASCAT scatterometer surface wind data. Eta, or its remnant low, is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours, taking the cyclone across portions of Honduras during that time. In 24 to 36 hours, a turn to the north and then northeast is forecast as Eta feels some influence from a mid- to upper level trough moving over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. As this trough slides southeastward across the Gulf, it should steer Eta northeastward at a faster forward speed toward Cuba, likely approaching that country late Saturday or Sunday. After that time, the models show Eta rotating around the north side of the trough (or cut-off low) in the vicinity of south Florida and the Florida Keys late this weekend and early next week. There is still a lot of spread in the model tracks at the 96- and 120-hour time periods, which is not surprising given the expected complex steering pattern. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the east of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models, but confidence in the details of the extended track forecast is low. Continued weakening is expected while Eta remains inland over the rugged terrain of Central America, and the cyclone will likely degenerate into a remnant low or trough of low pressure on Thursday. Whatever is left of Eta, and the broad gyre that it is embedded within, will move offshore of Belize over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by Thursday night or Friday. The rate of intensification over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will likely be gradual because of the mixed environmental conditions. On one hand, Eta will be moving over warm water and in a region of upper-level diffluence, which should support convective growth and strengthening. Conversely, there will also be an increase in wind shear and the cyclone is likely to have a broad structure, which should prevent rapid intensification. The net result will likely be slow but steady strengthening, and Eta is forecast to be a strong tropical storm when it is near south Florida. The models are in fair agreement on Eta's future intensity, and this forecast is just a little higher than the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 14.2N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 05/1200Z 15.0N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0000Z 16.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z 17.2N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 18.2N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H 07/1200Z 19.3N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 20.4N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 23.3N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 24.7N 81.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-05 03:36:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 9:00 PM CST Wed Nov 4 the center of Eta was located near 14.2, -86.3 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 18
2020-11-05 03:36:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 050236 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 ...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 86.3W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 86.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected later tonight through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is forecast to occur Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move across Honduras through Thursday afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by Thursday night. Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected while Eta remains over land, and Eta will likely degenerate to a remnant low or trough of low pressure on Thursday. However, re-intensification is forecast once the center of Eta moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Monday morning: Portions of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize: An additional 15 to 30 inches (380 to 760 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras. Portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador and Costa Rica: An additional 15 to 20 inches (380 to 510 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm), isolated maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm). Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into western Cuba: 10 to 25 inches (255 to 635 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-11-05 03:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 050236 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 2(16) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) 1(22) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-11-05 03:36:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 050236 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 86.3W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 86.3W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 86.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.0N 87.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.1N 87.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.2N 86.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.2N 85.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 83.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.4N 82.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.3N 79.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.7N 81.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 86.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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