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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-11-05 21:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 052053 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 87.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 87.7W AT 05/2100Z...INLAND AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 87.7W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.4N 87.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.1N 86.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.1N 83.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.3N 81.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.5N 82.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 87.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 21
2020-11-05 21:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 052053 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 ...ETA STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...SHOULD MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 87.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of the Cayman islands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Interests in Belize and western Cuba should also monitor the progress of this system, as Tropical Storm Watches may be required for portions of western Cuba later tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 87.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the north is expected during the next several hours. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday, with this motion continuing through Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will emerge over the Caribbean Sea tonight and approach the Cayman Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Eta is expected to re-gain tropical storm strength on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands Saturday or Saturday night. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-05 15:54:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 14:54:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 14:54:00 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-11-05 15:50:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 051450 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 Eta remains disorganized this morning, as visible imagery suggests that the circulation has become elongated and that multiple vorticity centers may be present inside the larger cyclonic envelope. The center position for this advisory, which is over northwestern Honduras, is closer to convection in the northwestern semicircle than was the case 6 h ago, so the cyclone is being maintained as a tropical depression at this time. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/8 kt. Eta or its remnants should move generally northwestward today, then turn northward tonight. From 24-72 h, the system should move northeastward in response to a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. From 72-120 h, the trough is forecast to become a closed mid- to upper-level low in the vicinity of western Cuba, with the center of Eta likely to turn west-northwestward on the north side of the low. While the global models are in good agreement with this synoptic evolution, there is a significant spread in the forecast tracks between the fastest and farthest east GFS and the slowest and farthest west UKMET. The new forecast track lies between these extremes in best overall agreement with the ECMWF and Canadian models, and it calls for the system to be near western Cuba and the Cayman Islands in 60-72 h, and then be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the forecast period. Little change in strength is expected before the center moves back over the Caribbean, but there is still a chance that Eta could degenerate to a remnant low pressure area later today if the convection does not persist. Intensification is expected over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea from 24-72 h, although this may be slowed by southwesterly shear caused by the aforementioned trough. As the trough cuts off near or over Eta between 72-120 h, the global models suggest that the system could strengthen while acquiring at least some subtropical or hybrid characteristics due to upper-level cold air entrainment. The new intensity forecast is little changed from the previous forecast, and in the latter part of the forecast period it lies near the intensity consensus. It should be noted that while Eta regaining hurricane strength cannot be ruled out, there is little support for that in the current guidance. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 15.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/0000Z 15.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/1200Z 16.8N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 07/0000Z 17.8N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 19.0N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 20.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 21.3N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 24.0N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-11-05 15:50:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 051450 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 13(25) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 16(26) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) BELIZE CITY 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 6(11) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 9(20) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) 3(23) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 3(20) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24) 2(26) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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