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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-11-04 21:46:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 042046 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 2(15) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-04 21:45:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN A FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO HONDURAS... ...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 3:00 PM CST Wed Nov 4 the center of Eta was located near 13.9, -85.7 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-04 18:48:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 17:48:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 15:45:21 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-04 18:46:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA WINDS DECREASE FURTHER BUT IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 12:00 PM CST Wed Nov 4 the center of Eta was located near 13.9, -85.6 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 16A
2020-11-04 18:46:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 041746 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1200 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 ...ETA WINDS DECREASE FURTHER BUT IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 85.6W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Governments of Nicaragua and Honduras have discontinued all of the coastal warnings for Nicaragua and Honduras. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Although the coastal warnings have been discontinued, the governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 85.6 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected this afternoon through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north, and then northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move over northern Nicaragua through early this afternoon, and then move across Honduras later this afternoon through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves over land during the next day or two, and Eta should become a tropical depression tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (80 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for a few more hours, and near the center of Eta for several more hours. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Sunday morning: Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: An additional 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in northeast Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.. Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 30 inches (760 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) The Cayman Islands: An additional 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm), isolated storm totals of 20 inches (510 mm). Jamaica and Southern Haiti: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should gradually decrease today. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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