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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-05 00:43:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 6:00 PM CST Wed Nov 4 the center of Eta was located near 14.1, -86.1 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 17A
2020-11-05 00:43:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 042342 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 17A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 600 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 Corrected maximum wind speed ...ETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 86.1W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM E OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 86.1 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected later tonight through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move across Honduras through Thursday afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by Thursday night. Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western Cuba this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are now near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected while Eta remains over land during the next day or so, and Eta could degenerate to a remnant low during that time. However, re-intensification is forecast once the center of Eta moves over the Caribbean Sea. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Monday morning: Portions of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize: An additional 15 to 30 inches (380 to 760 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras. Portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador and Costa Rica: An additional 15 to 20 inches (380 to 510 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm), isolated maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm). Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into western Cuba: 10 to 25 inches (255 to 635 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-05 00:43:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 23:43:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 21:23:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-04 21:47:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 20:47:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 20:47:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-11-04 21:46:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 042046 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 Eta continues to weaken as it moves from Nicaragua into Honduras. There is little convection left near the center, and the strongest convection remains in bands well removed from the center. As before, there are no wind observations available near the center of Eta at this time, so the initial intensity is reduced to a uncertain 35 kt. The initial motion is westward or 275/6. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it on a generally west- northwestward track during the next 24 h or so. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough moving over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause Eta or is remnants to turn northward and then northeastward, Then, by 120 h, the cyclone is likely to move northward or northwestward on the eastern side of the trough as it cuts off into a closed low. The track guidance remains in reasonable agreement with this scenario, However, there remains some spread on when and where the various turns will occur, and there has also been an eastward shift in the guidance envelope after 36 h. The new forecast track is shifted to the east of the previous track after 36 h, and at 72 and 96 h it lies a little to the west of the various consensus models, Eta will continue to weaken while it crosses Honduras, and it is expected to decay to a remnant low before it reaches the Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Re-development is expected once the center is over the water. However, interaction with the aforementioned trough could result in a structure that is more subtropical or hybrid, as suggested by the UKMET, than a classical tropical cyclone, as suggested by the ECMWF. The new intensity forecast will follow the previous forecast and go with a gradual intensification that follows the general trend of the model guidance. However, the intensity forecast again lies a little below the intensity consensus. Although it is weakening, Eta will continue to produce heavy rainfall and flooding over portions of Central America. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength before it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 13.9N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 05/0600Z 14.2N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/1800Z 15.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 16.5N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 17.7N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H 07/0600Z 18.8N 84.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 20.5N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 24.0N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 25.5N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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