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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-11-21 21:32:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Nov 21 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 212032 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 PM AST Thu Nov 21 2019 Convection associated with Sebastien has become better organized during the past several hours, as a band has formed near and over the center in the eastern semicircle. Overall, the cloud pattern remains elongated from north-to-south as the storm is interacting with a cold front not far to its northwest. Scatterometer data received just after the last advisory indicated 45-50 kt winds, and based on this and current satellite intensity estimates the initial intensity remains 50 kt. The cyclone has turned northeastward with the initial motion now 050/8. Southwesterly mid-latitude flow should steer Sebastien or its remnants quickly northeastward, and the guidance is in good agreement on the direction of movement during the next several days. However, there is a significant spread in the forward speed, with the new ECMWF run being much slower than the other guidance. The new track forecast will be only slightly slower than the previous forecast, but adjustments to the forecast forward speed may be necessary later. Sebastien is in an apparently unfavorable environment for development due to strong shear, decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, and an expected extratropical transition as it merges with the front. The intensity guidance is rather divergent during the first 24 h, with the SHIPS and LGEM models showing weakening while the dynamical guidance continues to forecast strengthening despite the environment. After that time, all guidance indicates that Sebastien should weaken. The intensity forecast continues the trend of the previous forecast in showing some strengthening during the first 24 h in agreement with the dynamical models, followed by weakening and extratropical transition by 48 h. Given how close the cold front is to the storm at this time, it is possible that extratropical transition could occur earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 23.8N 59.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 25.5N 57.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 27.9N 53.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 30.6N 48.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 33.5N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/1800Z 39.0N 31.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)
2019-11-21 21:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SEBASTIEN NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Nov 21 the center of Sebastien was located near 23.8, -59.7 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 10
2019-11-21 21:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Nov 21 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 212031 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 PM AST Thu Nov 21 2019 ...SEBASTIEN NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 59.7W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 59.7 West. Sebastien is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Sebastien could become a hurricane on Friday. A weakening trend is expected to begin by late Friday, and the system is likely to become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-11-21 21:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 212031 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 2100 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 10
2019-11-21 21:31:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 212031 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 2100 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 59.7W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 59.7W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 60.1W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 25.5N 57.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 80SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.9N 53.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.6N 48.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 160SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 33.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 140SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 39.0N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 120SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 59.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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