je.st
news
Tag: sebastien
Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-11-21 15:48:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 211448 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 1500 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 60.5W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 60.5W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 60.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 58.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 80SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 27.2N 55.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.0N 50.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.2N 45.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 160SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 39.7N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 120SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 60.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics
2019-11-21 09:33:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2019 08:33:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2019 09:24:20 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
sebastien
Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-11-21 09:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 210831 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0900 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-11-21 09:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Nov 21 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 210831 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 AM AST Thu Nov 21 2019 Sebastien continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms over its southeastern quadrant with more disorganized convection to the north and west of the center. Despite the fair amount of convection, the cloud pattern lacks banding features and the center of the storm has been challenging to locate. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt based on ASCAT data from several hours ago. This data also indicate that Sebastien's wind field is quite lopsided, with all of its tropical-storm-force winds confined to the eastern side of the circulation. The initial motion of the storm is tough to assess given that there is more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the current position, but my best guess is 015/7 kt. A deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic is approaching Sebastien, and that feature should cause the storm to accelerate to the northeast during the next few days. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there are major along-track or speed differences among the models, with the GFS/HWRF/HMON being the fastest solutions and the ECMWF being the slowest. In fact, at 48 hours, the spread between the GFS and ECMWF models is more than 700 n mi. The NHC forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope and ends up near the UKMET model, but this prediction is of low confidence. Upper-level diffluence, relatively warm SSTs, and a moist environment should allow for Sebastien to strengthen during the next 24 hours or so. In fact, all of the hurricane regional models show significant or even rapid intensification during that time period. Given the asymmetric structure of Sebastien currently, rapid intensification seems unlikely, and the NHC intensity prediction lies closer to the lower end of the guidance in the short term. Beyond 24 hours, Sebastien will be moving into progressively more hostile conditions of increasing shear, drier air, and cooler waters. These conditions should end the opportunity for strengthening and begin the process of extratropical transition. Sebastien is expected to become fully extratropical in about 48 hours, but this could occur sooner if the GFS is correct or later if the ECMWF is correct. The extratropical low is forecast to slowly weaken and dissipate in about 4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 23.0N 61.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 24.5N 59.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 26.6N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 29.4N 52.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 32.4N 47.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/0600Z 38.6N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)
2019-11-21 09:31:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SEBASTIEN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Nov 21 the center of Sebastien was located near 23.0, -61.2 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
sebastien
Sites : [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] next »