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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 31
2017-07-30 04:32:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 300232 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Irwin had a partially cloud-free region near its center in visible satellite imagery a few hours ago, but that feature has since filled, and cloud-top temperatures have cooled in the central region. Satellite intensity estimates range widely from 35 kt to 55 kt, but an ASCAT pass from around 1800 UTC showed maximum winds just over 40 kt in the southeastern quadrant. Based on that data, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt. Although the shear over the cyclone is low and should remain low for several days, Irwin only has another 12 hours or so before it reaches waters colder than 26 deg C. Therefore, additional weakening is anticipated after 12 hours, and Irwin could degenerate into a remnant low as early as 48 hours while it is over sea surface temperatures of 22 deg C. Based on a consensus of the global models, the remnant low should dissipate by day 5. Irwin is accelerating toward the north as anticipated, and the initial motion is now 355/7 kt. The cyclone should turn north-northwestward soon and continue accelerating during the next 36 hours in the wake of Tropical Storm Hilary. After 48 hours, once the two remnant circulations get even closer together, Irwin is likely to turn northwestward and slow down considerably. There is a normal amount of spread among the track guidance, and the updated NHC track forecast was only shifted slightly northeast of the previous forecast on days 3 and 4 to lean closer to the ECMWF, HCCA, and the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 16.4N 124.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 17.7N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 19.9N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 22.3N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 24.6N 128.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z 27.4N 132.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0000Z 28.5N 133.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
2017-07-30 04:32:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN A LITTLE WEAKER AND ACCELERATING NORTHWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 the center of Irwin was located near 16.4, -124.6 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 31
2017-07-30 04:32:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 300231 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 ...IRWIN A LITTLE WEAKER AND ACCELERATING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 124.6W ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 124.6 West. Irwin is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by additional acceleration Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours as Irwin moves over colder water, and it is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2017-07-30 04:32:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 300231 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0300 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 1 27(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 125W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 31
2017-07-30 04:31:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 300231 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0300 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 124.6W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 124.6W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 124.5W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.7N 125.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.9N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 22.3N 127.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.6N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.4N 132.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 28.5N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 124.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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