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Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics
2018-10-20 04:37:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 20 Oct 2018 02:37:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 20 Oct 2018 03:21:56 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-10-20 04:36:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200236 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 Radar imagery from Guatemala has been extremely helpful in tracking the center of Vicente, especially after sunset. The low-level center of the small tropical storm appears to have accelerated northwestward during the past couple of hours, away from its rapidly decaying central dense overcast, and is now almost entirely exposed. Analysis from UW-CIMSS indicates that 10-15 knots of northwesterly shear is currently affecting Vicente, and this appears to have been enough to significantly disrupt the organization of the cyclone, probably due to its small size. The initial intensity has been held at 35 kt based on objective and subjective satellite estimates at 00Z, but given the tiny size of Vicente and its large swings in organization since early this morning, its unclear how representative these estimates are of the true maximum winds. Vicente is now moving west-northwestward, or 300/3 kt, and all of the guidance indicates that it will turn westward overnight. After that time, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will likely cause the cyclone to turn southwestward, especially if Vicente remains weak and shallow. A few models even indicate the tropical storm could dissipate entirely as it interacts with these winds. Assuming the cyclone makes it past the Gulf of Tehuantepec intact, Vicente should turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest after about 48 h as it gets steered by the flow between a mid-level ridge over Mexico and another tropical cyclone that will likely develop off the coast of Mexico by that time. The NHC forecast has been shifted a little to the west at most forecast times, closer to the HCCA and FSSE aids, but is generally similar to the previous advisory. Due in part to the rapid decline in Vicente's organization this evening, the intensity forecast has been adjusted lower at most forecast hours for the first 48 h of the forecast, but is still generally higher than the model consensus. Most of the intensity guidance still calls for intensification, especially between 36 h and 72 h, when Vicente should be past the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and the shear should remain generally low. By the end of the forecast period, the global models indicate that Vicente will interact with a much larger tropical cyclone to its west, which should cause Vicente to weaken and possibly dissipate, though a 120 h point is still carried in this forecast for continuity purposes. Vicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast overnight and on Saturday, however, heavy rainfall, with possible life-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 13.7N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 13.7N 93.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 13.3N 94.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 12.5N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 12.3N 97.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 13.8N 100.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 17.0N 104.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)
2018-10-20 04:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VICENTE MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 the center of Vicente was located near 13.7, -92.5 with movement WNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 3
2018-10-20 04:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 200235 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 ...VICENTE MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 92.5W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF TAPACHULA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), radar data from Guatemala and satellite imagery indicated that the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 92.5 West. Vicente is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). An increase in forward speed and a turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the southwest on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente should gradually move away from the coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico tonight and tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next few days. Vicente is a small tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, Vicente is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with local amounts to 15 inches across portions of El Salvador and southern Guatemala, with 3 to 6 inches and local amounts to 10 inches near the Pacific coast of southeastern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-10-20 04:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 200235 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0300 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 92.5W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 92.5W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.7N 93.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.3N 94.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.5N 95.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.3N 97.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.8N 100.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.0N 104.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 92.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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